Traders view the closely matched 180-239 tweet ranges as the most probable outcome for Elon Musk during August 7-14, 2026, with those bins commanding the top implied probabilities around 37%. This tight clustering among adjacent buckets reflects uncertainty around his variable posting cadence, shaped by ongoing business developments at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI alongside real-time news cycles and public commentary. Historical patterns indicate moderate weekly volume absent major catalysts, while the lower odds on extremes highlight limited expectations for spikes or lulls. Key differentiating factors include any high-profile announcements or industry events that could shift engagement levels before the period concludes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado400-419 67%
380-399 66%
200-219 33%
180-199 33%
NOVO
NOVO
14 ago 2026
<20
1%
20-39
1%
40-59
1%
60-79
1%
80-99
31%
100-119
23%
120-139
22%
140-159
23%
160-179
25%
180-199
33%
200-219
33%
220-239
32%
240-259
32%
260-279
28%
280-299
26%
300-319
23%
320-339
22%
340-359
23%
360-379
23%
380-399
66%
400-419
67%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500+
1%
400-419 67%
380-399 66%
200-219 33%
180-199 33%
NOVO
NOVO
14 ago 2026
<20
$10 Vol.
1%
20-39
$10 Vol.
1%
40-59
$10 Vol.
1%
60-79
$10 Vol.
1%
80-99
$10 Vol.
31%
100-119
$0 Vol.
23%
120-139
$0 Vol.
22%
140-159
$0 Vol.
23%
160-179
$0 Vol.
25%
180-199
$0 Vol.
33%
200-219
$0 Vol.
33%
220-239
$0 Vol.
32%
240-259
$0 Vol.
32%
260-279
$0 Vol.
28%
280-299
$0 Vol.
26%
300-319
$0 Vol.
23%
320-339
$0 Vol.
22%
340-359
$0 Vol.
23%
360-379
$0 Vol.
23%
380-399
$10 Vol.
66%
400-419
$10 Vol.
67%
420-439
$36 Vol.
1%
440-459
$10 Vol.
1%
460-479
$10 Vol.
1%
480-499
$10 Vol.
1%
500+
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders view the closely matched 180-239 tweet ranges as the most probable outcome for Elon Musk during August 7-14, 2026, with those bins commanding the top implied probabilities around 37%. This tight clustering among adjacent buckets reflects uncertainty around his variable posting cadence, shaped by ongoing business developments at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI alongside real-time news cycles and public commentary. Historical patterns indicate moderate weekly volume absent major catalysts, while the lower odds on extremes highlight limited expectations for spikes or lulls. Key differentiating factors include any high-profile announcements or industry events that could shift engagement levels before the period concludes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$146Data de Término
14 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders view the closely matched 180-239 tweet ranges as the most probable outcome for Elon Musk during August 7-14, 2026, with those bins commanding the top implied probabilities around 37%. This tight clustering among adjacent buckets reflects uncertainty around his variable posting cadence, shaped by ongoing business developments at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI alongside real-time news cycles and public commentary. Historical patterns indicate moderate weekly volume absent major catalysts, while the lower odds on extremes highlight limited expectations for spikes or lulls. Key differentiating factors include any high-profile announcements or industry events that could shift engagement levels before the period concludes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$146Data de Término
14 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the closely matched 180-239 tweet ranges as the most probable outcome for Elon Musk during August 7-14, 2026, with those bins commanding the top implied probabilities around 37%. This tight clustering among adjacent buckets reflects uncertainty around his variable posting cadence, shaped by ongoing business developments at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI alongside real-time news cycles and public commentary. Historical patterns indicate moderate weekly volume absent major catalysts, while the lower odds on extremes highlight limited expectations for spikes or lulls. Key differentiating factors include any high-profile announcements or industry events that could shift engagement levels before the period concludes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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