Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and resilient economic growth, has anchored trader expectations for no change at the Federal Reserve’s January 2027 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 61.5% market-implied probability. Recent energy price pressures from Middle East developments and a divided July vote—with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike—have elevated the odds of modest tightening to 19.5% for a 25 bp increase, while keeping cut probabilities lower. Futures markets currently price a gradual path toward 3.8–4.0% by late 2026, contrasting with the Fed’s data-dependent stance ahead of the September meeting and subsequent releases on CPI and labor conditions that could shift the implied rate trajectory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNo change 62%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 6.3%
$34,028 Vol.
$34,028 Vol.
27 jan 2027
50+ bps decrease
6%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
62%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
20%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
2%
No change 62%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 6.3%
$34,028 Vol.
$34,028 Vol.
27 jan 2027
50+ bps decrease
$3,376 Vol.
6%
25 bps decrease
$7,417 Vol.
15%
No change
$13,728 Vol.
62%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$8,045 Vol.
20%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$1,463 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and resilient economic growth, has anchored trader expectations for no change at the Federal Reserve’s January 2027 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 61.5% market-implied probability. Recent energy price pressures from Middle East developments and a divided July vote—with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike—have elevated the odds of modest tightening to 19.5% for a 25 bp increase, while keeping cut probabilities lower. Futures markets currently price a gradual path toward 3.8–4.0% by late 2026, contrasting with the Fed’s data-dependent stance ahead of the September meeting and subsequent releases on CPI and labor conditions that could shift the implied rate trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$34,028Data de Término
27 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and resilient economic growth, has anchored trader expectations for no change at the Federal Reserve’s January 2027 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 61.5% market-implied probability. Recent energy price pressures from Middle East developments and a divided July vote—with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike—have elevated the odds of modest tightening to 19.5% for a 25 bp increase, while keeping cut probabilities lower. Futures markets currently price a gradual path toward 3.8–4.0% by late 2026, contrasting with the Fed’s data-dependent stance ahead of the September meeting and subsequent releases on CPI and labor conditions that could shift the implied rate trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$34,028Data de Término
27 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and resilient economic growth, has anchored trader expectations for no change at the Federal Reserve’s January 2027 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 61.5% market-implied probability. Recent energy price pressures from Middle East developments and a divided July vote—with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike—have elevated the odds of modest tightening to 19.5% for a 25 bp increase, while keeping cut probabilities lower. Futures markets currently price a gradual path toward 3.8–4.0% by late 2026, contrasting with the Fed’s data-dependent stance ahead of the September meeting and subsequent releases on CPI and labor conditions that could shift the implied rate trajectory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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