Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have pushed market-implied odds of a 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike to roughly 31.5 percent, leaving the consensus for no change at 68.5 percent. The federal funds target range remains anchored at 3.50-3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision, with the latest dot plot still projecting one cut by year-end amid a resilient labor market where unemployment sits at 4.3 percent. Brokerage forecasts now cluster around a prolonged hold, citing sticky core PCE above 3 percent and limited room for easing before incoming Chair Kevin Warsh takes office. Key near-term catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which could further clarify whether upside inflation risks warrant any tightening this year.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$1,101,028 Vol.
$1,101,028 Vol.
9 dez 2026
Sim
$1,101,028 Vol.
$1,101,028 Vol.
9 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have pushed market-implied odds of a 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike to roughly 31.5 percent, leaving the consensus for no change at 68.5 percent. The federal funds target range remains anchored at 3.50-3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision, with the latest dot plot still projecting one cut by year-end amid a resilient labor market where unemployment sits at 4.3 percent. Brokerage forecasts now cluster around a prolonged hold, citing sticky core PCE above 3 percent and limited room for easing before incoming Chair Kevin Warsh takes office. Key near-term catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which could further clarify whether upside inflation risks warrant any tightening this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,101,028Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have pushed market-implied odds of a 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike to roughly 31.5 percent, leaving the consensus for no change at 68.5 percent. The federal funds target range remains anchored at 3.50-3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision, with the latest dot plot still projecting one cut by year-end amid a resilient labor market where unemployment sits at 4.3 percent. Brokerage forecasts now cluster around a prolonged hold, citing sticky core PCE above 3 percent and limited room for easing before incoming Chair Kevin Warsh takes office. Key near-term catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which could further clarify whether upside inflation risks warrant any tightening this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,101,328Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have pushed market-implied odds of a 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike to roughly 31.5 percent, leaving the consensus for no change at 68.5 percent. The federal funds target range remains anchored at 3.50-3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision, with the latest dot plot still projecting one cut by year-end amid a resilient labor market where unemployment sits at 4.3 percent. Brokerage forecasts now cluster around a prolonged hold, citing sticky core PCE above 3 percent and limited room for easing before incoming Chair Kevin Warsh takes office. Key near-term catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which could further clarify whether upside inflation risks warrant any tightening this year.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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