Recent meteorological forecasts from agencies like the Met Office project a daytime high near 36°C in Chongqing on August 13 under mostly sunny conditions, driving the market's strong consensus around 35–37°C as leading outcomes. Chongqing's subtropical monsoon climate, river basin topography, and urban heat island effects typically sustain August highs near 34°C, though humidity above 70% and variable cloud cover or weak steering winds can shift actual peaks by 1–2°C. No major heatwave or extreme model runs currently push probabilities toward 38°C or higher, while cooler-than-expected advection keeps 34°C viable but less favored; updated model guidance and any last-minute synoptic changes remain the key variables traders are monitoring ahead of resolution.