Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a maximum of 31°C on August 26 amid a moist southerly flow, frequent showers, and thunderstorms that limit solar insolation and cap daytime heating. High relative humidity (75–95%) and cloud cover promote evaporative cooling and reduce the potential for brief clear intervals that could push readings to 32°C or higher. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 30–31°C, with modest upside risk if convection weakens earlier than expected. Historical August climatology centers near 31°C, so traders are weighing the balance between persistent rainfall suppressing peaks and any steering-pattern shifts allowing slightly warmer conditions.