Trader consensus in the San Francisco highest-temperature market centers on the 78–79°F bin at 28.5% implied probability, driven by National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models showing a gradual warming trend into early September as upper-level ridging builds and onshore marine flow weakens slightly. Recent observations indicate daily highs near 68–72°F under persistent stratus and northwest winds, below the 70.3°F climatological average, yet afternoon clearing could allow brief warming if the marine layer remains shallow. Key variables include inversion strength, wind direction shifts, and any remnant tropical moisture from Pacific systems that might enhance cloud cover or trigger isolated showers, keeping outcomes in the 76–81°F range competitive while limiting upside beyond 84°F given historical September maxima. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs through September 6 will provide the next resolution-relevant data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em São Francisco no dia 7 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em São Francisco no dia 7 de setembro?
76-77°F 33%
78-79°F 28%
74-75°F 19%
72-73°F 15%
NOVO
NOVO
7 set 2026
69°F ou menos
1%
21-22°C
3%
72-73°F
15%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
33%
78-79°F
28%
80-81°F
11%
28-28,3°C
11%
84-85°F
5%
30°C - 30,5°C
3%
88°F ou mais
3%
76-77°F 33%
78-79°F 28%
74-75°F 19%
72-73°F 15%
NOVO
NOVO
7 set 2026
69°F ou menos
$123 Vol.
1%
21-22°C
$0 Vol.
3%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
15%
74-75°F
$20 Vol.
19%
76-77°F
$20 Vol.
33%
78-79°F
$128 Vol.
28%
80-81°F
$72 Vol.
11%
28-28,3°C
$45 Vol.
11%
84-85°F
$113 Vol.
5%
30°C - 30,5°C
$0 Vol.
3%
88°F ou mais
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus in the San Francisco highest-temperature market centers on the 78–79°F bin at 28.5% implied probability, driven by National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models showing a gradual warming trend into early September as upper-level ridging builds and onshore marine flow weakens slightly. Recent observations indicate daily highs near 68–72°F under persistent stratus and northwest winds, below the 70.3°F climatological average, yet afternoon clearing could allow brief warming if the marine layer remains shallow. Key variables include inversion strength, wind direction shifts, and any remnant tropical moisture from Pacific systems that might enhance cloud cover or trigger isolated showers, keeping outcomes in the 76–81°F range competitive while limiting upside beyond 84°F given historical September maxima. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs through September 6 will provide the next resolution-relevant data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 5, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$521Data de Término
7 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 5, 2026, 7:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus in the San Francisco highest-temperature market centers on the 78–79°F bin at 28.5% implied probability, driven by National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models showing a gradual warming trend into early September as upper-level ridging builds and onshore marine flow weakens slightly. Recent observations indicate daily highs near 68–72°F under persistent stratus and northwest winds, below the 70.3°F climatological average, yet afternoon clearing could allow brief warming if the marine layer remains shallow. Key variables include inversion strength, wind direction shifts, and any remnant tropical moisture from Pacific systems that might enhance cloud cover or trigger isolated showers, keeping outcomes in the 76–81°F range competitive while limiting upside beyond 84°F given historical September maxima. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs through September 6 will provide the next resolution-relevant data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$521Data de Término
7 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 5, 2026, 7:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus in the San Francisco highest-temperature market centers on the 78–79°F bin at 28.5% implied probability, driven by National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models showing a gradual warming trend into early September as upper-level ridging builds and onshore marine flow weakens slightly. Recent observations indicate daily highs near 68–72°F under persistent stratus and northwest winds, below the 70.3°F climatological average, yet afternoon clearing could allow brief warming if the marine layer remains shallow. Key variables include inversion strength, wind direction shifts, and any remnant tropical moisture from Pacific systems that might enhance cloud cover or trigger isolated showers, keeping outcomes in the 76–81°F range competitive while limiting upside beyond 84°F given historical September maxima. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs through September 6 will provide the next resolution-relevant data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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