Recent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from global ensembles, indicate Shanghai's overnight low on August 13 will likely settle near 24–26 °C under overcast skies and scattered showers that limit radiational cooling. Climatological August minima average 25–26 °C, and current surface observations show modest humidity and light winds consistent with this range rather than sharper drops. Trader positioning favoring 26 °C reflects the tight clustering of these forecasts, with lower probabilities assigned to 24 °C or 27 °C outcomes that would require notable model shifts before resolution tomorrow morning. Updated guidance from regional meteorological centers will provide the final data point for market settlement.