Recent model guidance from sources including Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and global ensembles points to a minimum temperature near 22–24 °C for Taipei on 19 September, with mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow limiting overnight radiative cooling. The near-even split between the 18 °C-or-below and 28 °C-or-higher outcomes reflects residual spread across ensemble members driven by small differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and the precise strength of the monsoon surge. Historical September minima average 24–26 °C, so the current setup sits close to climatology yet remains sensitive to any late adjustment in the subtropical ridge or urban heat retention. Updated high-resolution runs and the next CWA briefing are the key near-term catalysts that could narrow the distribution around the most probable 22–24 °C range.