U.S. sanctions and the longstanding trade embargo continue to block commercial expansion by American companies into Cuba proper. In January 2026 the Trump administration issued an executive order citing national security threats, authorizing tariffs on third countries supplying oil to Havana and intensifying economic pressure on the Cuban government. Additional sanctions followed in May, including an indictment of former president Raúl Castro and designations targeting regime officials. These measures have produced no easing of licensing or investment rules that would permit McDonald’s entry. Cuban president Miguel Díaz-Canel offered only a non-committal response when asked about foreign franchises in June 2026. Traders therefore assign just a 7 percent chance of an announcement by year-end, reflecting the absence of any policy reversal or corporate statement that could alter the current barriers.