Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has publicly rejected external demands for his resignation, most recently in April 2026 interviews where he stated that stepping down is not part of the leadership’s approach and emphasized Cuba’s sovereign self-determination. His second term runs through 2028 under Communist Party structures, with no recent party congress, internal faction signals, or succession announcements indicating an imminent transition. Ongoing U.S.-Cuba diplomatic contacts have focused on humanitarian and energy issues rather than leadership change, while domestic economic strains have not produced verifiable institutional fractures or mass political upheaval in the short window before June 30. Traders assign the 80 percent probability to “No” because these factors point to continuity absent a sudden catalyst.