Recent surges in U.S. surveillance flights near Cuba, new sanctions imposed last week, and President Trump's public suggestions of positioning an aircraft carrier offshore have intensified geopolitical tensions, elevating the implied probability of a military clash to 41% in trader consensus. These developments stem from earlier U.S. actions, including the January military operation in Venezuela that killed 32 Cuban troops and subsequent oil blockade causing fuel shortages on the island. Yet "No" leads at 59% due to April's high-level diplomatic meetings between U.S. and Cuban officials—deemed respectful—and Pentagon reports of contingency planning without approved action, signaling potential de-escalation paths amid mutual preparations for worst-case scenarios through 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoConfronto militar EUA x Cuba em 2026?
Confronto militar EUA x Cuba em 2026?
Sim
$107,493 Vol.
$107,493 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$107,493 Vol.
$107,493 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent surges in U.S. surveillance flights near Cuba, new sanctions imposed last week, and President Trump's public suggestions of positioning an aircraft carrier offshore have intensified geopolitical tensions, elevating the implied probability of a military clash to 41% in trader consensus. These developments stem from earlier U.S. actions, including the January military operation in Venezuela that killed 32 Cuban troops and subsequent oil blockade causing fuel shortages on the island. Yet "No" leads at 59% due to April's high-level diplomatic meetings between U.S. and Cuban officials—deemed respectful—and Pentagon reports of contingency planning without approved action, signaling potential de-escalation paths amid mutual preparations for worst-case scenarios through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$107,493Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent surges in U.S. surveillance flights near Cuba, new sanctions imposed last week, and President Trump's public suggestions of positioning an aircraft carrier offshore have intensified geopolitical tensions, elevating the implied probability of a military clash to 41% in trader consensus. These developments stem from earlier U.S. actions, including the January military operation in Venezuela that killed 32 Cuban troops and subsequent oil blockade causing fuel shortages on the island. Yet "No" leads at 59% due to April's high-level diplomatic meetings between U.S. and Cuban officials—deemed respectful—and Pentagon reports of contingency planning without approved action, signaling potential de-escalation paths amid mutual preparations for worst-case scenarios through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$107,493Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent surges in U.S. surveillance flights near Cuba, new sanctions imposed last week, and President Trump's public suggestions of positioning an aircraft carrier offshore have intensified geopolitical tensions, elevating the implied probability of a military clash to 41% in trader consensus. These developments stem from earlier U.S. actions, including the January military operation in Venezuela that killed 32 Cuban troops and subsequent oil blockade causing fuel shortages on the island. Yet "No" leads at 59% due to April's high-level diplomatic meetings between U.S. and Cuban officials—deemed respectful—and Pentagon reports of contingency planning without approved action, signaling potential de-escalation paths amid mutual preparations for worst-case scenarios through 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions