Recent shifts in Colombian leadership have reduced immediate risks of unilateral US military action on Colombian soil. Following the August 2026 inauguration of conservative President Abelardo de la Espriella, Bogotá joined a US-led counter-narcotics coalition and authorized joint operations against groups such as the ELN, reframing potential strikes as cooperative efforts rather than confrontation. Earlier tensions under former President Gustavo Petro—including US Caribbean and Pacific boat strikes, sanctions threats, and rhetorical escalations after the January 2026 Venezuela operation—had briefly elevated market odds, but diplomatic engagement and policy alignment since the transition have lowered implied probabilities for a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Colombian territory by December 31 (currently the leading outcome at 32%). No qualifying strikes on Colombian ground have occurred amid the broader regional counter-drug campaign. Scheduled coalition activities and ongoing bilateral security talks remain key near-term catalysts that could either sustain or alter trader consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$2,161,432 Vol.
31 jan 2026
31 de dezembro
31%
$2,161,432 Vol.
31 de dezembro
$1,084,217 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Recent shifts in Colombian leadership have reduced immediate risks of unilateral US military action on Colombian soil. Following the August 2026 inauguration of conservative President Abelardo de la Espriella, Bogotá joined a US-led counter-narcotics coalition and authorized joint operations against groups such as the ELN, reframing potential strikes as cooperative efforts rather than confrontation. Earlier tensions under former President Gustavo Petro—including US Caribbean and Pacific boat strikes, sanctions threats, and rhetorical escalations after the January 2026 Venezuela operation—had briefly elevated market odds, but diplomatic engagement and policy alignment since the transition have lowered implied probabilities for a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Colombian territory by December 31 (currently the leading outcome at 32%). No qualifying strikes on Colombian ground have occurred amid the broader regional counter-drug campaign. Scheduled coalition activities and ongoing bilateral security talks remain key near-term catalysts that could either sustain or alter trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volume
$2,161,432Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Recent shifts in Colombian leadership have reduced immediate risks of unilateral US military action on Colombian soil. Following the August 2026 inauguration of conservative President Abelardo de la Espriella, Bogotá joined a US-led counter-narcotics coalition and authorized joint operations against groups such as the ELN, reframing potential strikes as cooperative efforts rather than confrontation. Earlier tensions under former President Gustavo Petro—including US Caribbean and Pacific boat strikes, sanctions threats, and rhetorical escalations after the January 2026 Venezuela operation—had briefly elevated market odds, but diplomatic engagement and policy alignment since the transition have lowered implied probabilities for a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Colombian territory by December 31 (currently the leading outcome at 32%). No qualifying strikes on Colombian ground have occurred amid the broader regional counter-drug campaign. Scheduled coalition activities and ongoing bilateral security talks remain key near-term catalysts that could either sustain or alter trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$2,161,432Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent shifts in Colombian leadership have reduced immediate risks of unilateral US military action on Colombian soil. Following the August 2026 inauguration of conservative President Abelardo de la Espriella, Bogotá joined a US-led counter-narcotics coalition and authorized joint operations against groups such as the ELN, reframing potential strikes as cooperative efforts rather than confrontation. Earlier tensions under former President Gustavo Petro—including US Caribbean and Pacific boat strikes, sanctions threats, and rhetorical escalations after the January 2026 Venezuela operation—had briefly elevated market odds, but diplomatic engagement and policy alignment since the transition have lowered implied probabilities for a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Colombian territory by December 31 (currently the leading outcome at 32%). No qualifying strikes on Colombian ground have occurred amid the broader regional counter-drug campaign. Scheduled coalition activities and ongoing bilateral security talks remain key near-term catalysts that could either sustain or alter trader consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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