Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?

Michael Brand 39%

Alexander Hoffmann 39%

Carsten Linnemann 38%

Thorsten Frei 38%

NOVO

31 dez 2026

Michael Brand

$0 Vol.

39%

Alexander Hoffmann

$0 Vol.

39%

Carsten Linnemann

$0 Vol.

38%

Thorsten Frei

$0 Vol.

38%

Günter Krings

$0 Vol.

38%

Alexander Dobrindt

$0 Vol.

38%

Nina Warken

$0 Vol.

38%

Michael Brand 39%

Alexander Hoffmann 39%

Carsten Linnemann 38%

Thorsten Frei 38%

NOVO

31 dez 2026

Michael Brand

$0 Vol.

39%

Alexander Hoffmann

$0 Vol.

39%

Carsten Linnemann

$0 Vol.

38%

Thorsten Frei

$0 Vol.

38%

Günter Krings

$0 Vol.

38%

Alexander Dobrindt

$0 Vol.

38%

Nina Warken

$0 Vol.

38%

On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/). This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn. Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify. If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.

Relacionado

A coalizão federal alemã CDU/CSU-SPD vai se desfazer antes de 2027?

13%

Sim

Nenhum líder listado sairá antes de 2027?

60%

Sim

O Linke ganhará o terceiro maior número de assentos nas eleições estaduais de Berlim de 2026?

29%

Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Michael Brand" at 39%, followed by "Alexander Hoffmann" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?" is "Michael Brand" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexander Hoffmann" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 39¢ for "Michael Brand" in the "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 39% chance that "Michael Brand" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 39¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 61¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?

Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?

Regras

Contexto de Mercado

Regras

Contexto de Mercado

Relacionado

Comentários

Top Holders

Cargos

Actividade

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?"?

What are the current odds for "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?"?

How will "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?" be resolved?

Can I follow "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?"?

What does a price of 39¢ for "Michael Brand" mean?

When does the "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?" market close?

What are traders saying about "Próximo líder da União Alemã (CDU/CSU)?"?

What is Polymarket?