**Strong audience demand and favorable release window position "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" for a sixth-weekend gross of $15 million or more, reflected in the 86.5% market-implied probability.** Released July 31, 2026, the Tom Holland–Zendaya Marvel film opened to a record $360 million domestic and has demonstrated exceptional legs, dropping roughly 60% in its second weekend to $144 million, then 51% to around $71 million in the third, 45% to $39 million in the fourth, and 42% to $22.5 million in the fifth. These holds exceed typical superhero-film patterns, driven by positive word-of-mouth, minimal late-summer competition, and sustained theatrical interest after crossing $2 billion worldwide in under three weeks. With the film still leading the box office into early September and no major new wide releases immediately threatening its screens, traders see limited downside risk below the $15 million threshold. The narrow spread on lower brackets underscores consensus around continued solid performance rather than a sharp drop-off.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6º fim de semana de bilheteria
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6º fim de semana de bilheteria
15 milhões+ 87%
14-15 milhões 14%
12-13 milhões <1%
13-14 milhões <1%
NOVO
NOVO
6 set 2026
<11m
1%
11-12 milhões
1%
12-13 milhões
1%
13-14 milhões
1%
14-15 milhões
14%
15 milhões+
87%
15 milhões+ 87%
14-15 milhões 14%
12-13 milhões <1%
13-14 milhões <1%
NOVO
NOVO
6 set 2026
<11m
$553 Vol.
1%
11-12 milhões
$552 Vol.
1%
12-13 milhões
$211 Vol.
1%
13-14 milhões
$248 Vol.
1%
14-15 milhões
$433 Vol.
14%
15 milhões+
$1,144 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 6th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (September 4 - 6) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong audience demand and favorable release window position "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" for a sixth-weekend gross of $15 million or more, reflected in the 86.5% market-implied probability.**
Released July 31, 2026, the Tom Holland–Zendaya Marvel film opened to a record $360 million domestic and has demonstrated exceptional legs, dropping roughly 60% in its second weekend to $144 million, then 51% to around $71 million in the third, 45% to $39 million in the fourth, and 42% to $22.5 million in the fifth. These holds exceed typical superhero-film patterns, driven by positive word-of-mouth, minimal late-summer competition, and sustained theatrical interest after crossing $2 billion worldwide in under three weeks.
With the film still leading the box office into early September and no major new wide releases immediately threatening its screens, traders see limited downside risk below the $15 million threshold. The narrow spread on lower brackets underscores consensus around continued solid performance rather than a sharp drop-off.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 6th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (September 4 - 6) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 2, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Volume
$3,140Data de Término
6 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 6th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (September 4 - 6) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong audience demand and favorable release window position "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" for a sixth-weekend gross of $15 million or more, reflected in the 86.5% market-implied probability.**
Released July 31, 2026, the Tom Holland–Zendaya Marvel film opened to a record $360 million domestic and has demonstrated exceptional legs, dropping roughly 60% in its second weekend to $144 million, then 51% to around $71 million in the third, 45% to $39 million in the fourth, and 42% to $22.5 million in the fifth. These holds exceed typical superhero-film patterns, driven by positive word-of-mouth, minimal late-summer competition, and sustained theatrical interest after crossing $2 billion worldwide in under three weeks.
With the film still leading the box office into early September and no major new wide releases immediately threatening its screens, traders see limited downside risk below the $15 million threshold. The narrow spread on lower brackets underscores consensus around continued solid performance rather than a sharp drop-off.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 6th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (September 4 - 6) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$3,140Data de Término
6 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong audience demand and favorable release window position "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" for a sixth-weekend gross of $15 million or more, reflected in the 86.5% market-implied probability.** Released July 31, 2026, the Tom Holland–Zendaya Marvel film opened to a record $360 million domestic and has demonstrated exceptional legs, dropping roughly 60% in its second weekend to $144 million, then 51% to around $71 million in the third, 45% to $39 million in the fourth, and 42% to $22.5 million in the fifth. These holds exceed typical superhero-film patterns, driven by positive word-of-mouth, minimal late-summer competition, and sustained theatrical interest after crossing $2 billion worldwide in under three weeks. With the film still leading the box office into early September and no major new wide releases immediately threatening its screens, traders see limited downside risk below the $15 million threshold. The narrow spread on lower brackets underscores consensus around continued solid performance rather than a sharp drop-off.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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