Trader sentiment positions OpenAI as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI agent lab by end of August, reflected in its 79% market-implied probability driven by consistent leadership in large language model scaling and demonstrated agentic workflows. A broad field of competitors—including multiple anonymous companies and established labs—cluster near 50% or far lower, underscoring uncertainty over relative agent performance, safety benchmarks, and developer adoption rates in a rapidly evolving space. With resolution imminent, any final model updates or third-party capability evaluations could still influence outcomes before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTerceiro melhor laboratório de agentes de IA no final de agosto?
OpenAI 79.0%
Moonshot 10%
Z.ai <1%
Xiaomi <1%
$16,738 Vol.
$16,738 Vol.

OpenAI
79%

Moonshot
10%

Z.ai
1%

Xiaomi
1%

Anthropic
<1%

Mistral
<1%

SpaceXAI
<1%

Meta
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 79.0%
Moonshot 10%
Z.ai <1%
Xiaomi <1%
$16,738 Vol.
$16,738 Vol.

OpenAI
79%

Moonshot
10%

Z.ai
1%

Xiaomi
1%

Anthropic
<1%

Mistral
<1%

SpaceXAI
<1%

Meta
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado Aberto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment positions OpenAI as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI agent lab by end of August, reflected in its 79% market-implied probability driven by consistent leadership in large language model scaling and demonstrated agentic workflows. A broad field of competitors—including multiple anonymous companies and established labs—cluster near 50% or far lower, underscoring uncertainty over relative agent performance, safety benchmarks, and developer adoption rates in a rapidly evolving space. With resolution imminent, any final model updates or third-party capability evaluations could still influence outcomes before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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