Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story surged to a dominant 93.5% implied probability after dropping all eight episodes on Netflix on September 17, capitalizing on the Monster anthology’s established audience and true-crime appeal. The Ryan Murphy–Ian Brennan series features Ella Beatty in the lead role alongside Charlie Hunnam and Vicky Krieps, generating strong premiere buzz that typically translates into immediate top-chart placement for new seasons. Traders appear to view the fresh release as the clearest path to this week’s U.S. number-one spot, consistent with how major Netflix originals perform in their opening days. An upset remains possible if established titles like Crew Girl sustain or regain momentum through the week or if late-week data shows faster drop-off than expected for the new season.