Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, which rose to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader consensus toward a higher-for-longer federal funds rate path. Market-implied odds now assign a 59.7% probability to a 3.75% terminal rate by year-end, reflecting the Fed's cautious stance following its April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% range and limited scope for cuts given sticky core inflation near 2.8%. Futures pricing and broker forecasts from firms like BofA and Goldman Sachs indicate minimal easing this year, with the current policy rate near 3.63% serving as a key benchmark. Upcoming May CPI and June FOMC communications could further anchor these probabilities if inflation remains above target.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado3,75% 59.7%
4,0% 14.7%
3,25% 8%
3,5% 7%
$6,523,433 Vol.
$6,523,433 Vol.
9 dez 2026
≤1,0%
<1%
1,25
1%
1,5%
<1%
1,75%
1%
2,0%
<1%
2,25%
<1%
2,5%
1%
2,75%
1%
3,0%
4%
3,25%
8%
3,5%
7%
3,75%
60%
4,0%
15%
4,25%
4%
≥ 4,5%
1%
3,75% 59.7%
4,0% 14.7%
3,25% 8%
3,5% 7%
$6,523,433 Vol.
$6,523,433 Vol.
9 dez 2026
≤1,0%
$216,014 Vol.
<1%
1,25
$134,363 Vol.
1%
1,5%
$134,117 Vol.
<1%
1,75%
$134,015 Vol.
1%
2,0%
$246,062 Vol.
<1%
2,25%
$70,849 Vol.
<1%
2,5%
$158,852 Vol.
1%
2,75%
$46,024 Vol.
1%
3,0%
$454,736 Vol.
4%
3,25%
$51,537 Vol.
8%
3,5%
$190,202 Vol.
7%
3,75%
$518,453 Vol.
60%
4,0%
$1,358,628 Vol.
15%
4,25%
$413,541 Vol.
4%
≥ 4,5%
$2,396,040 Vol.
1%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, which rose to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader consensus toward a higher-for-longer federal funds rate path. Market-implied odds now assign a 59.7% probability to a 3.75% terminal rate by year-end, reflecting the Fed's cautious stance following its April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% range and limited scope for cuts given sticky core inflation near 2.8%. Futures pricing and broker forecasts from firms like BofA and Goldman Sachs indicate minimal easing this year, with the current policy rate near 3.63% serving as a key benchmark. Upcoming May CPI and June FOMC communications could further anchor these probabilities if inflation remains above target.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,523,433Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, which rose to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader consensus toward a higher-for-longer federal funds rate path. Market-implied odds now assign a 59.7% probability to a 3.75% terminal rate by year-end, reflecting the Fed's cautious stance following its April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% range and limited scope for cuts given sticky core inflation near 2.8%. Futures pricing and broker forecasts from firms like BofA and Goldman Sachs indicate minimal easing this year, with the current policy rate near 3.63% serving as a key benchmark. Upcoming May CPI and June FOMC communications could further anchor these probabilities if inflation remains above target.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,523,433Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, which rose to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader consensus toward a higher-for-longer federal funds rate path. Market-implied odds now assign a 59.7% probability to a 3.75% terminal rate by year-end, reflecting the Fed's cautious stance following its April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% range and limited scope for cuts given sticky core inflation near 2.8%. Futures pricing and broker forecasts from firms like BofA and Goldman Sachs indicate minimal easing this year, with the current policy rate near 3.63% serving as a key benchmark. Upcoming May CPI and June FOMC communications could further anchor these probabilities if inflation remains above target.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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