Anthropic’s April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and demonstrated clear gains in complex software engineering, instruction following, and high-resolution vision tasks, has driven the current 67 percent market-implied probability that the company holds the top large language model by end of June. Recent data showing Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise adoption further reinforces trader consensus around its sustained lead. Google sits at 23 percent following incremental Gemini 3.1 updates and strong context-window performance, while OpenAI’s May 5 GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout has yet to shift the broader leaderboard enough to close the gap. With only six weeks remaining, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark results from these labs could still alter the tight secondary probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)
Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)
Anthropic 67%
Google 24%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.6%
$1,457,416 Vol.
$1,457,416 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
67%
24%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Microsoft
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 67%
Google 24%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.6%
$1,457,416 Vol.
$1,457,416 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$30,607 Vol.
67%
$18,768 Vol.
24%
OpenAI
$49,364 Vol.
5%
xAI
$14,994 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,408 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$136,551 Vol.
1%
Meta
$8,184 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,936 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$11,912 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,394 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$270,733 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$59,379 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,849 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,651 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$17,686 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and demonstrated clear gains in complex software engineering, instruction following, and high-resolution vision tasks, has driven the current 67 percent market-implied probability that the company holds the top large language model by end of June. Recent data showing Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise adoption further reinforces trader consensus around its sustained lead. Google sits at 23 percent following incremental Gemini 3.1 updates and strong context-window performance, while OpenAI’s May 5 GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout has yet to shift the broader leaderboard enough to close the gap. With only six weeks remaining, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark results from these labs could still alter the tight secondary probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,457,416Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and demonstrated clear gains in complex software engineering, instruction following, and high-resolution vision tasks, has driven the current 67 percent market-implied probability that the company holds the top large language model by end of June. Recent data showing Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise adoption further reinforces trader consensus around its sustained lead. Google sits at 23 percent following incremental Gemini 3.1 updates and strong context-window performance, while OpenAI’s May 5 GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout has yet to shift the broader leaderboard enough to close the gap. With only six weeks remaining, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark results from these labs could still alter the tight secondary probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,457,416Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and demonstrated clear gains in complex software engineering, instruction following, and high-resolution vision tasks, has driven the current 67 percent market-implied probability that the company holds the top large language model by end of June. Recent data showing Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise adoption further reinforces trader consensus around its sustained lead. Google sits at 23 percent following incremental Gemini 3.1 updates and strong context-window performance, while OpenAI’s May 5 GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout has yet to shift the broader leaderboard enough to close the gap. With only six weeks remaining, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark results from these labs could still alter the tight secondary probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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