The low annual probability of a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California, estimated from USGS long-term models like UCERF3 showing recurrence intervals of decades to centuries along major faults such as the San Andreas, underpins the 97.5% market-implied odds for no such event in 2026. Recent monitoring through August reveals only moderate activity, including a 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and scattered smaller swarms, with no foreshock patterns or strain accumulation signals indicating imminent rupture. Remaining months introduce limited additional risk given typical seasonal stability and the absence of unusual tectonic indicators. While a sudden large release on a locked fault segment remains possible, historical data and current seismic quiescence support trader consensus on the outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Califórnia experimentará um terremoto de magnitude 7,0 ou superior em 2026?
A Califórnia experimentará um terremoto de magnitude 7,0 ou superior em 2026?
3% chance
NOVO
NOVO
1 jan 2027
3% chance
NOVO
NOVO
1 jan 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. The low annual probability of a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California, estimated from USGS long-term models like UCERF3 showing recurrence intervals of decades to centuries along major faults such as the San Andreas, underpins the 97.5% market-implied odds for no such event in 2026. Recent monitoring through August reveals only moderate activity, including a 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and scattered smaller swarms, with no foreshock patterns or strain accumulation signals indicating imminent rupture. Remaining months introduce limited additional risk given typical seasonal stability and the absence of unusual tectonic indicators. While a sudden large release on a locked fault segment remains possible, historical data and current seismic quiescence support trader consensus on the outcome.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$3,181Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. The low annual probability of a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California, estimated from USGS long-term models like UCERF3 showing recurrence intervals of decades to centuries along major faults such as the San Andreas, underpins the 97.5% market-implied odds for no such event in 2026. Recent monitoring through August reveals only moderate activity, including a 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and scattered smaller swarms, with no foreshock patterns or strain accumulation signals indicating imminent rupture. Remaining months introduce limited additional risk given typical seasonal stability and the absence of unusual tectonic indicators. While a sudden large release on a locked fault segment remains possible, historical data and current seismic quiescence support trader consensus on the outcome.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Volume
$3,181Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The low annual probability of a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California, estimated from USGS long-term models like UCERF3 showing recurrence intervals of decades to centuries along major faults such as the San Andreas, underpins the 97.5% market-implied odds for no such event in 2026. Recent monitoring through August reveals only moderate activity, including a 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and scattered smaller swarms, with no foreshock patterns or strain accumulation signals indicating imminent rupture. Remaining months introduce limited additional risk given typical seasonal stability and the absence of unusual tectonic indicators. While a sudden large release on a locked fault segment remains possible, historical data and current seismic quiescence support trader consensus on the outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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