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Will gas hit __ by end of May?

icon for Will gas hit __ by end of May?

Will gas hit __ by end of May?

mai 31

mai 31

$140,635 Vol.

31 mai 2026
Polymarket

$140,635 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $5.00

$21,620 Vol.

14%

↑ $4.70

$11,417 Vol.

52%

↑ $4.60

$11,673 Vol.

64%

↓ $4.25

$2,557 Vol.

12%

↓ $4.20

$1,868 Vol.

9%

↓ $4.10

$1,101 Vol.

9%

↓ $4.00

$884 Vol.

5%

↓ $3.75

$1,486 Vol.

3%

↓ $3.50

$6,952 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Natural gas prices have traded in a narrow range near $2.80–$3.00 per MMBtu through mid-May 2026, supported by resilient U.S. dry production above 110 Bcf/d and elevated storage inventories at 2,290 Bcf—well above seasonal norms. Mild shoulder-season weather has capped power-sector demand, while scheduled LNG facility maintenance trimmed export feedgas needs despite broader 2026 export forecasts near 17–18 Bcf/d. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook lowered its 2026 Henry Hub average to $3.50, reflecting softer price expectations amid ample supply. With June futures recently testing the 50-day moving average and warmer eastern U.S. forecasts ahead, traders are monitoring the next storage report and any heat-driven demand spikes as the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities for upside thresholds by month-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$140,635
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Natural gas prices have traded in a narrow range near $2.80–$3.00 per MMBtu through mid-May 2026, supported by resilient U.S. dry production above 110 Bcf/d and elevated storage inventories at 2,290 Bcf—well above seasonal norms. Mild shoulder-season weather has capped power-sector demand, while scheduled LNG facility maintenance trimmed export feedgas needs despite broader 2026 export forecasts near 17–18 Bcf/d. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook lowered its 2026 Henry Hub average to $3.50, reflecting softer price expectations amid ample supply. With June futures recently testing the 50-day moving average and warmer eastern U.S. forecasts ahead, traders are monitoring the next storage report and any heat-driven demand spikes as the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities for upside thresholds by month-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$140,635
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will gas hit __ by end of May?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑ $4.50" at 100%, followed by "↑ $4.45" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will gas hit __ by end of May?" has generated $140.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will gas hit __ by end of May?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will gas hit __ by end of May?" is "↑ $4.50" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ $4.45" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will gas hit __ by end of May?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.