Russian forces continue incremental advances in the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya directions of Donetsk Oblast amid their broader spring-summer 2026 offensive, aiming to expand control west of key settlements and pressure Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt.” However, Ukrainian forces have conducted a counteroffensive operation north of Lyman since at least mid-September, recapturing territory including around Serednie and disrupting Russian infiltration attempts along axes that could affect settlements like Havrylivka. Market resolution hinges on ISW mapping confirming Russian control of a specific intersection in the village. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to near-term capture by September 30 or December 31, consistent with slow measured Russian gains measured in square kilometers alongside high casualties and active Ukrainian drone and localized counteractions. Scheduled frontline developments in these sectors could influence assessments within the resolution windows.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Rússia vai capturar Havrylivka por...?
A Rússia vai capturar Havrylivka por...?
$303,802 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 de setembro
2%
31 de dezembro
5%
$303,802 Vol.
30 de setembro
$153,203 Vol.
2%
31 de dezembro
$26,923 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.0728° N, 36.5235° E in Havrylivka by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+1.png
Intersection Location in Havrylivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+2.png
Havrylivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/bpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue incremental advances in the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya directions of Donetsk Oblast amid their broader spring-summer 2026 offensive, aiming to expand control west of key settlements and pressure Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt.” However, Ukrainian forces have conducted a counteroffensive operation north of Lyman since at least mid-September, recapturing territory including around Serednie and disrupting Russian infiltration attempts along axes that could affect settlements like Havrylivka. Market resolution hinges on ISW mapping confirming Russian control of a specific intersection in the village. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to near-term capture by September 30 or December 31, consistent with slow measured Russian gains measured in square kilometers alongside high casualties and active Ukrainian drone and localized counteractions. Scheduled frontline developments in these sectors could influence assessments within the resolution windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.0728° N, 36.5235° E in Havrylivka by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+1.png
Intersection Location in Havrylivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+2.png
Havrylivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/bpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+1.png
Intersection Location in Havrylivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+2.png
Havrylivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/bpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 24, 2026, 10:07 PM ET
Volume
$303,802Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 24, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.0728° N, 36.5235° E in Havrylivka by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+1.png
Intersection Location in Havrylivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+2.png
Havrylivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/bpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue incremental advances in the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya directions of Donetsk Oblast amid their broader spring-summer 2026 offensive, aiming to expand control west of key settlements and pressure Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt.” However, Ukrainian forces have conducted a counteroffensive operation north of Lyman since at least mid-September, recapturing territory including around Serednie and disrupting Russian infiltration attempts along axes that could affect settlements like Havrylivka. Market resolution hinges on ISW mapping confirming Russian control of a specific intersection in the village. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to near-term capture by September 30 or December 31, consistent with slow measured Russian gains measured in square kilometers alongside high casualties and active Ukrainian drone and localized counteractions. Scheduled frontline developments in these sectors could influence assessments within the resolution windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.0728° N, 36.5235° E in Havrylivka by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+1.png
Intersection Location in Havrylivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+2.png
Havrylivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/bpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+1.png
Intersection Location in Havrylivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+2.png
Havrylivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/bpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$303,802Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 24, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces continue incremental advances in the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya directions of Donetsk Oblast amid their broader spring-summer 2026 offensive, aiming to expand control west of key settlements and pressure Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt.” However, Ukrainian forces have conducted a counteroffensive operation north of Lyman since at least mid-September, recapturing territory including around Serednie and disrupting Russian infiltration attempts along axes that could affect settlements like Havrylivka. Market resolution hinges on ISW mapping confirming Russian control of a specific intersection in the village. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to near-term capture by September 30 or December 31, consistent with slow measured Russian gains measured in square kilometers alongside high casualties and active Ukrainian drone and localized counteractions. Scheduled frontline developments in these sectors could influence assessments within the resolution windows.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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