Spain and France lead trader sentiment in World Cup markets to reach the final, with implied probabilities around 29% and 26% respectively, reflecting their strong squads, recent major tournament success, and favorable early group results. Spain’s Euro 2024 title and depth anchored by players like Lamine Yamal underpin expectations, while France’s back-to-back final appearances and experience with Kylian Mbappé sustain support. Brazil’s 1-1 draw with Morocco slightly lengthened its title odds but kept semifinal and final paths viable given group positioning, and the United States’ 4-1 win over Paraguay boosted co-host momentum in an expanded 48-team bracket. Key upcoming factors include remaining group fixtures, injury updates ahead of knockouts, and historical knockout performance, with the wisdom of crowds pricing in path advantages and squad health as decisive variables.