Traders assign near-zero probability to a complete zero-transit day through the Strait of Hormuz because Iranian actions since the February 2026 closure have produced sustained low but non-zero daily traffic rather than total shutdown. A US-Iran memorandum briefly lifted restrictions in mid-June, yet renewed attacks on vessels in early July collapsed the arrangement and returned the waterway to de facto blockade status. Current volumes hover around 10 transits per day—far below the pre-crisis average of roughly 100—via escorted convoys, dark-ship movements, and limited commercial sailings. Shipping firms continue to cite war-risk insurance costs and safety concerns, yet verifiable data from trackers such as IMF PortWatch and Kpler show at least minimal passages persisting into August. Any diplomatic breakthrough or escalation capable of altering naval access remains the key variable that could shift daily counts.