Recent floor crossings have shifted Canada's parliamentary balance, with five opposition MPs joining Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals since November 2025, most recently Marilyn Gladu on April 8. These moves helped secure a majority after by-elections, reducing immediate pressure for further defections. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has criticized the practice as undermining voter mandates, while public polls show divided views on its legitimacy. No additional crossings have occurred in the past month amid stable majority dynamics and ongoing internal opposition reviews. Upcoming House sessions and party conventions could test loyalties, though historical patterns indicate such shifts often tie to policy alignment or leadership dissatisfaction rather than predictable timelines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
30 июн. 2026 г.
May 31
16%
$1,868 Объем
May 31
$255 Объем
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings have shifted Canada's parliamentary balance, with five opposition MPs joining Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals since November 2025, most recently Marilyn Gladu on April 8. These moves helped secure a majority after by-elections, reducing immediate pressure for further defections. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has criticized the practice as undermining voter mandates, while public polls show divided views on its legitimacy. No additional crossings have occurred in the past month amid stable majority dynamics and ongoing internal opposition reviews. Upcoming House sessions and party conventions could test loyalties, though historical patterns indicate such shifts often tie to policy alignment or leadership dissatisfaction rather than predictable timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Объем
$1,868Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings have shifted Canada's parliamentary balance, with five opposition MPs joining Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals since November 2025, most recently Marilyn Gladu on April 8. These moves helped secure a majority after by-elections, reducing immediate pressure for further defections. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has criticized the practice as undermining voter mandates, while public polls show divided views on its legitimacy. No additional crossings have occurred in the past month amid stable majority dynamics and ongoing internal opposition reviews. Upcoming House sessions and party conventions could test loyalties, though historical patterns indicate such shifts often tie to policy alignment or leadership dissatisfaction rather than predictable timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,868Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Recent floor crossings have shifted Canada's parliamentary balance, with five opposition MPs joining Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals since November 2025, most recently Marilyn Gladu on April 8. These moves helped secure a majority after by-elections, reducing immediate pressure for further defections. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has criticized the practice as undermining voter mandates, while public polls show divided views on its legitimacy. No additional crossings have occurred in the past month amid stable majority dynamics and ongoing internal opposition reviews. Upcoming House sessions and party conventions could test loyalties, though historical patterns indicate such shifts often tie to policy alignment or leadership dissatisfaction rather than predictable timelines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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