Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a framework agreement announced mid-June and a signing targeted for June 19, serves as the dominant catalyst shaping trader consensus on end-of-June transit volumes. Pre-conflict baselines exceeded 100 vessels daily, yet current AIS data shows just 5-10 transits amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums, lingering mine threats, and shipowner caution pending verified safety protocols. The closely matched probabilities across 0-60 ship buckets reflect uncertainty over resumption speed, with potential rebounds toward 40 daily transits hinging on toll-free access and naval de-escalation that could ease supply-chain costs and Brent crude risk premiums. Key swing factors include any last-minute Iranian restrictions or accelerated clearances before the June 30 resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
20-40 72%
40-60 17.7%
10-20 9.9%
60+ 1.6%
$309,985 Объем
$309,985 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
0-10
1%
10-20
10%
20-40
72%
40-60
18%
60+
2%
20-40 72%
40-60 17.7%
10-20 9.9%
60+ 1.6%
$309,985 Объем
$309,985 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
0-10
$67,147 Объем
1%
10-20
$51,161 Объем
10%
20-40
$55,010 Объем
72%
40-60
$81,520 Объем
18%
60+
$55,148 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a framework agreement announced mid-June and a signing targeted for June 19, serves as the dominant catalyst shaping trader consensus on end-of-June transit volumes. Pre-conflict baselines exceeded 100 vessels daily, yet current AIS data shows just 5-10 transits amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums, lingering mine threats, and shipowner caution pending verified safety protocols. The closely matched probabilities across 0-60 ship buckets reflect uncertainty over resumption speed, with potential rebounds toward 40 daily transits hinging on toll-free access and naval de-escalation that could ease supply-chain costs and Brent crude risk premiums. Key swing factors include any last-minute Iranian restrictions or accelerated clearances before the June 30 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Объем
$309,985Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a framework agreement announced mid-June and a signing targeted for June 19, serves as the dominant catalyst shaping trader consensus on end-of-June transit volumes. Pre-conflict baselines exceeded 100 vessels daily, yet current AIS data shows just 5-10 transits amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums, lingering mine threats, and shipowner caution pending verified safety protocols. The closely matched probabilities across 0-60 ship buckets reflect uncertainty over resumption speed, with potential rebounds toward 40 daily transits hinging on toll-free access and naval de-escalation that could ease supply-chain costs and Brent crude risk premiums. Key swing factors include any last-minute Iranian restrictions or accelerated clearances before the June 30 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$309,985Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a framework agreement announced mid-June and a signing targeted for June 19, serves as the dominant catalyst shaping trader consensus on end-of-June transit volumes. Pre-conflict baselines exceeded 100 vessels daily, yet current AIS data shows just 5-10 transits amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums, lingering mine threats, and shipowner caution pending verified safety protocols. The closely matched probabilities across 0-60 ship buckets reflect uncertainty over resumption speed, with potential rebounds toward 40 daily transits hinging on toll-free access and naval de-escalation that could ease supply-chain costs and Brent crude risk premiums. Key swing factors include any last-minute Iranian restrictions or accelerated clearances before the June 30 resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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