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icon for Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце августа?
Геополитика·Масло

Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце августа?

icon for Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце августа?
Геополитика·Масло

Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце августа?

авг. 31

авг. 31

<25 44.8%

25-29 27%

30-34 20%

35–39 6%

Polymarket

$15,134 Объем

<25 44.8%

25-29 27%

30-34 20%

35–39 6%

Polymarket

$15,134 Объем

<25

$2,960 Объем

45%

25-29

$3,518 Объем

27%

30-34

$3,754 Объем

20%

35–39

$1,163 Объем

6%

40+

$3,738 Объем

2%

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime restrictions, including the July 2026 blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, have driven sharp volatility and a sustained decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship crossings fluctuating between lows of 1–5 and highs near 30–39 amid elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives. This has stabilized weekly volumes around 260–270 vessels—well below pre-escalation norms of roughly 350+—as carriers weigh risks from missile threats and enforcement actions tied to broader regional tensions. Market-implied odds favoring sub-25 daily averages reflect trader assessment of these persistent disruptions, with limited near-term catalysts for recovery before month-end absent verified de-escalation.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$15,134
Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET

Источник определения исхода

IMF PortWatch

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime restrictions, including the July 2026 blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, have driven sharp volatility and a sustained decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship crossings fluctuating between lows of 1–5 and highs near 30–39 amid elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives. This has stabilized weekly volumes around 260–270 vessels—well below pre-escalation norms of roughly 350+—as carriers weigh risks from missile threats and enforcement actions tied to broader regional tensions. Market-implied odds favoring sub-25 daily averages reflect trader assessment of these persistent disruptions, with limited near-term catalysts for recovery before month-end absent verified de-escalation.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$15,134
Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET

Источник определения исхода

IMF PortWatch

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Связанные

icon for Менее 160 судов пройдут через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в период с 17 по 23 августа?

Менее 160 судов пройдут через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в период с 17 по 23 августа?

29%
Да
icon for Пройдут ли 180-199 судов через пролив Баб-эль-Мандеб в период с 10 по 16 августа?

Пройдут ли 180-199 судов через пролив Баб-эль-Мандеб в период с 10 по 16 августа?

35%
Да
icon for Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив фактически закрыт к 31 декабря?

Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив фактически закрыт к 31 декабря?

19%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце августа?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 5 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «<25» с 45%, за ним следует «25-29» с 27%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 45¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 45%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце августа?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $15.1K с момента запуска рынка Jul 31, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце августа?», просмотри 5 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце августа?» — «<25» с 45%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 45%. Следующий ближайший исход — «25-29» с 27%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце августа?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.