Persistent Houthi threats and recent July 2026 announcements targeting Saudi-linked tankers have driven fresh rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, compressing daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the low-30s range in late July and early August. Market-implied odds heavily favor averages below 30, with the <25 bin leading at 44.8%, as elevated war-risk premiums and selective ship diversions—particularly VLCCs—outweigh tentative recoveries seen in some non-tanker segments. Lingering uncertainty ahead of potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic developments and seasonal tonnage fluctuations reinforces trader caution, pricing in sustained suppression versus pre-2024 baselines near 75 daily passages.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСреднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце августа?
Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце августа?
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35–39 5%
$15,029 Объем
$15,029 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
<25
45%
25-29
27%
30-34
20%
35–39
5%
40+
2%
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35–39 5%
$15,029 Объем
$15,029 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
<25
$2,915 Объем
45%
25-29
$3,518 Объем
27%
30-34
$3,754 Объем
20%
35–39
$1,103 Объем
5%
40+
$3,738 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi threats and recent July 2026 announcements targeting Saudi-linked tankers have driven fresh rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, compressing daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the low-30s range in late July and early August. Market-implied odds heavily favor averages below 30, with the <25 bin leading at 44.8%, as elevated war-risk premiums and selective ship diversions—particularly VLCCs—outweigh tentative recoveries seen in some non-tanker segments. Lingering uncertainty ahead of potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic developments and seasonal tonnage fluctuations reinforces trader caution, pricing in sustained suppression versus pre-2024 baselines near 75 daily passages.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Объем
$15,029Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi threats and recent July 2026 announcements targeting Saudi-linked tankers have driven fresh rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, compressing daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the low-30s range in late July and early August. Market-implied odds heavily favor averages below 30, with the <25 bin leading at 44.8%, as elevated war-risk premiums and selective ship diversions—particularly VLCCs—outweigh tentative recoveries seen in some non-tanker segments. Lingering uncertainty ahead of potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic developments and seasonal tonnage fluctuations reinforces trader caution, pricing in sustained suppression versus pre-2024 baselines near 75 daily passages.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$15,029Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent Houthi threats and recent July 2026 announcements targeting Saudi-linked tankers have driven fresh rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, compressing daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the low-30s range in late July and early August. Market-implied odds heavily favor averages below 30, with the <25 bin leading at 44.8%, as elevated war-risk premiums and selective ship diversions—particularly VLCCs—outweigh tentative recoveries seen in some non-tanker segments. Lingering uncertainty ahead of potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic developments and seasonal tonnage fluctuations reinforces trader caution, pricing in sustained suppression versus pre-2024 baselines near 75 daily passages.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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