The Bank of Russia’s April 24 cut of its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.50 percent—the eighth consecutive easing step—has anchored trader expectations for another decrease at the June 19 meeting, where market-implied odds currently stand at 85.5 percent. Cooling headline inflation near 5.7–5.9 percent year-over-year and the central bank’s baseline forecast for a 2026 average rate of 14.0–14.5 percent support the case for further monetary policy loosening, as underlying price pressures ease toward the 4 percent target. Persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal spending and external conditions continue to cap the probability of no change at 12.5 percent while rendering a hike unlikely at 2.1 percent. May consumer-price data and any fresh guidance on aggregate demand will serve as the next key inputs ahead of resolution.