Trader consensus assigns an 85.5% implied probability to a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the June 19 meeting, driven by sustained disinflation after the April 24 cut of 50 basis points to 14.5%. March year-over-year inflation eased to 5.7–5.9%, with underlying price growth measures trending lower and the ruble strengthening near 74 USD/RUB, reducing imported cost pressures. Governor Elvira Nabiullina’s April communications noted that accumulated monetary tightness should return underlying inflation near the 4% target in the second half of 2026, consistent with the central bank’s 14.0–14.5% average rate forecast for the year. Persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal stimulus and external uncertainty support the 12.5% no-change probability, while an increase remains remote at 2.1%. The upcoming May CPI release will provide the next key data point.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРешение Банка России в июне?
Решение Банка России в июне?
Decrease 86%
No Change 13%
Increase 2.1%
$50,676 Объем
$50,676 Объем
19 июн. 2026 г.
Decrease
86%
No Change
13%
Increase
2%
Decrease 86%
No Change 13%
Increase 2.1%
$50,676 Объем
$50,676 Объем
19 июн. 2026 г.
Decrease
$20,172 Объем
86%
No Change
$10,324 Объем
13%
Increase
$20,180 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus assigns an 85.5% implied probability to a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the June 19 meeting, driven by sustained disinflation after the April 24 cut of 50 basis points to 14.5%. March year-over-year inflation eased to 5.7–5.9%, with underlying price growth measures trending lower and the ruble strengthening near 74 USD/RUB, reducing imported cost pressures. Governor Elvira Nabiullina’s April communications noted that accumulated monetary tightness should return underlying inflation near the 4% target in the second half of 2026, consistent with the central bank’s 14.0–14.5% average rate forecast for the year. Persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal stimulus and external uncertainty support the 12.5% no-change probability, while an increase remains remote at 2.1%. The upcoming May CPI release will provide the next key data point.
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Объем
$50,676Дата окончания
19 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus assigns an 85.5% implied probability to a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the June 19 meeting, driven by sustained disinflation after the April 24 cut of 50 basis points to 14.5%. March year-over-year inflation eased to 5.7–5.9%, with underlying price growth measures trending lower and the ruble strengthening near 74 USD/RUB, reducing imported cost pressures. Governor Elvira Nabiullina’s April communications noted that accumulated monetary tightness should return underlying inflation near the 4% target in the second half of 2026, consistent with the central bank’s 14.0–14.5% average rate forecast for the year. Persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal stimulus and external uncertainty support the 12.5% no-change probability, while an increase remains remote at 2.1%. The upcoming May CPI release will provide the next key data point.
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$50,676Дата окончания
19 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns an 85.5% implied probability to a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the June 19 meeting, driven by sustained disinflation after the April 24 cut of 50 basis points to 14.5%. March year-over-year inflation eased to 5.7–5.9%, with underlying price growth measures trending lower and the ruble strengthening near 74 USD/RUB, reducing imported cost pressures. Governor Elvira Nabiullina’s April communications noted that accumulated monetary tightness should return underlying inflation near the 4% target in the second half of 2026, consistent with the central bank’s 14.0–14.5% average rate forecast for the year. Persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal stimulus and external uncertainty support the 12.5% no-change probability, while an increase remains remote at 2.1%. The upcoming May CPI release will provide the next key data point.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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