The Bank of Russia’s April 24 cut of its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.50 percent, the eighth consecutive reduction, has positioned another decrease as the leading outcome ahead of the June 19 meeting. Persistent disinflation, with year-over-year CPI easing toward 5.7–5.9 percent and underlying price growth stabilizing near 4–5 percent annualized, supports expectations for further monetary easing to align with the central bank’s baseline forecast of a 14.0–14.5 percent average rate for 2026. Pro-inflationary risks from fiscal stimulus, elevated inflation expectations, and external uncertainties tied to the Ukraine conflict and energy markets temper the odds of a hold, while a rate hike remains remote given the prevailing restrictive stance and recent labor-market softening. May CPI data and any updated guidance on supply-capacity expansion will be key near-term inputs for traders.