Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 2026 state election reveals a fragmented electorate, with the CDU maintaining a modest lead in voting intentions while the Greens, Left Party, and AfD remain within a few points in most surveys. Criticism of the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition's response to recent infrastructure challenges has limited any decisive momentum for the governing parties. This narrow spread among top contenders, combined with the five-percent threshold and coalition arithmetic required for government formation, keeps the contest for the largest share of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus highly competitive. Further separation could emerge from late-campaign developments, federal policy shifts, or turnout patterns among key voter groups ahead of election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 2026 state election reveals a fragmented electorate, with the CDU maintaining a modest lead in voting intentions while the Greens, Left Party, and AfD remain within a few points in most surveys. Criticism of the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition's response to recent infrastructure challenges has limited any decisive momentum for the governing parties. This narrow spread among top contenders, combined with the five-percent threshold and coalition arithmetic required for government formation, keeps the contest for the largest share of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus highly competitive. Further separation could emerge from late-campaign developments, federal policy shifts, or turnout patterns among key voter groups ahead of election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
May 10 2026
AfD candidate René Stadtkewitz wins first directly elected full-time mayor position in Brandenburg
AfD rises to 19%2%
The AfD’s symbolic local victory with Stadtkewitz’s direct mayoral win in Brandenburg was hailed as a momentum signal for upcoming Berlin elections, slightly boosting market confidence.
May 9 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag finalizes election program
SPD dips to 7%3%
The final program adoption did not significantly improve market confidence, possibly due to perceived lack of breakthrough policies or broader coalition challenges.
May 8 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag scheduled to finalize election program on May 8-9
SPD rises to 10%3%
Anticipation of the final program adoption gave a slight boost to SPD's market
May 7 2026
Latest PolitPro poll places Grüne at 16.6%, behind CDU and AfD but ahead of SPD, indicating stable but limited growth
Grüne rises to 22%3%
Recent polling data confirmed Grüne's position as a significant but not leading force, supporting a modest upward.
Apr 28 2026
AfD hits 51% in Berlin opinion polls but faces entrenched center-right and left coalitions
AfD jumps to 17%7%
AfD briefly peaked in Berlin polls at 51%, reflecting a surge in popularity, but persistent skepticism and strong coalitions limited further gains, causing volatile market reactions.
Apr 25 2026
BSW holds party congress, adopts detailed election program emphasizing peace, social justice, and housing policies
BSW finalized its election platform focusing on peace politics, minimum wage initiatives, and housing reforms. Despite this programmatic clarity, the party's polling remained low, and the market.
Apr 18 2026
Polls show slight recovery for Grüne to around 15-16%, reflecting renewed focus on environmental and social policies
Grüne jumps to 15%6%
Improved polling numbers in mid-April, possibly due to campaign efforts emphasizing green policies, led to a moderate.
Mar 28 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly ahead, with Grüne, Linke, and AfD nearly tied, reflecting a fragmented race
Grüne rises to 12%3%
An April BerlinTrend poll revealed a tight race with Grüne close to other parties, temporarily boosting market confidence in their chances.
Mar 28 2026
AfD Thuringia becomes strongest party in 2024 state election with 32.8%
AfD dips to 10%3%
AfD’s historic win in Thuringia as the strongest party in a German state parliament underscored its regional strength but also intensified scrutiny and resistance, possibly tempering Berlin market enthusiasm.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll confirms BSW at 4%, still below threshold, with CDU leading the race
BSW dips to 1%1%
Another poll by Civey reaffirmed BSW's weak position at 4%, maintaining market consensus that BSW was unlikely to surpass the 5% threshold, keeping the.
Mar 8 2026
Baden-Württemberg state election kicks off 2026 election season with AfD polling 21%
The start of the 2026 election season with AfD polling strongly in Baden-Württemberg (21%) indicated growing national relevance, though Berlin-specific prospects remained uncertain.
Feb 28 2026
AfD surges in Saxony-Anhalt state polls to 41%, far ahead of CDU
AfD rises to 15%3%
Infratest dimap polling showed AfD widening its lead in Saxony-Anhalt to 41%, signaling strong regional momentum in eastern Germany and raising hopes for electoral breakthroughs, which positively influenced market sentiment.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll reports BSW at 4%, still under the threshold but showing slight improvement
BSW jumps to 7%6%
The INSA poll showed a modest rise in BSW support to 4%, briefly lifting market optimism and causing a small.
Feb 16 2026
SPD Berlin Landesvorstand approves draft of the 2026 election program
SPD rises to 7%1%
Approval of the draft election program signaled SPD's preparation for the campaign, but market reaction was muted due to lack of major new policy announcements.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows BSW at 3% support, well below the 5% electoral threshold
A major January poll by Infratest dimap confirmed BSW's low voter support at 3%, far below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. This reinforced market skepticism about BSW's chances, keeping the.
Jan 9 2026
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate, intensifying competition for left-leaning voters
Grüne rises to 5%1%
SPD's nomination of Steffen Krach and focus on housing and social services increased pressure on Grüne to maintain their voter base, causing minor.
Jan 5 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD leads CDU with record 27% support
AfD rises to 11%4%
A GMS poll published in early January showed AfD at a record 27% nationwide, ahead of Chancellor Merz’s CDU at 24%, marking the party’s highest-ever polling and briefly boosting market optimism.
Dec 15 2025
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the
CDU rises to 61%1%
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the Union”
Dec 10 2025
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 25%, Grüne at 15% amid active campaigning by all parties
Grüne plunges to 1%49%
Late 2025 polls indicated CDU as the frontrunner with 25%, while Grüne lagged at 15%, signaling a weak position for the Greens and triggering a sharp.
Dec 2 2025
BSW announces two Spitzenkandidaten for Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election: Alexander King and Michael Lüders
BSW plunges to 1%49%
The BSW publicly revealed its lead candidates for the September 2026 Berlin state election, marking its first run for the Abgeordnetenhaus. Despite this, the party was new and polling weakly, leading to a rapid market.
Dec 1 2025
Saxony revokes firearms licenses of AfD members under secret decree citing right-wing extremist classification
AfD plunges to 6%44%
Saxony’s Interior Ministry confirmed a secret decree revoking and denying firearms licenses to AfD members and supporters, citing the party’s designation as a confirmed right-wing extremist group. This legal pressure likely undermined confidence in AfD’s electoral prospects in Berlin, triggering a sharp.
Aug 31 2025
Steffen Krach selected as SPD lead candidate for 2026 Berlin state election
SPD rises to 9%3%
The nomination of Steffen Krach, Berlin Police president, as lead candidate was seen as a positive step for SPD's campaign, causing a modest
Mar 1 2024
SPD and CDU begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin
SPD rises to 9%3%
The start of coalition talks with CDU raised some hopes for SPD's influence in government, slightly stabilizing the market
Dec 12 2023
SPD suffers worst result in over a century with 18.4% in Berlin repeat state election, barely ahead of the Greens by 53 votes
SPD plunges to 8%42%
The SPD's historic low vote share in the 2023 repeat election shocked the market, causing a sharp drop in confidence about SPD winning the 2026 election.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 2026 state election reveals a fragmented electorate, with the CDU maintaining a modest lead in voting intentions while the Greens, Left Party, and AfD remain within a few points in most surveys. Criticism of the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition's response to recent infrastructure challenges has limited any decisive momentum for the governing parties. This narrow spread among top contenders, combined with the five-percent threshold and coalition arithmetic required for government formation, keeps the contest for the largest share of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus highly competitive. Further separation could emerge from late-campaign developments, federal policy shifts, or turnout patterns among key voter groups ahead of election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 2026 state election reveals a fragmented electorate, with the CDU maintaining a modest lead in voting intentions while the Greens, Left Party, and AfD remain within a few points in most surveys. Criticism of the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition's response to recent infrastructure challenges has limited any decisive momentum for the governing parties. This narrow spread among top contenders, combined with the five-percent threshold and coalition arithmetic required for government formation, keeps the contest for the largest share of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus highly competitive. Further separation could emerge from late-campaign developments, federal policy shifts, or turnout patterns among key voter groups ahead of election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
May 10 2026
AfD candidate René Stadtkewitz wins first directly elected full-time mayor position in Brandenburg
AfD rises to 19%2%
The AfD’s symbolic local victory with Stadtkewitz’s direct mayoral win in Brandenburg was hailed as a momentum signal for upcoming Berlin elections, slightly boosting market confidence.
May 9 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag finalizes election program
SPD dips to 7%3%
The final program adoption did not significantly improve market confidence, possibly due to perceived lack of breakthrough policies or broader coalition challenges.
May 8 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag scheduled to finalize election program on May 8-9
SPD rises to 10%3%
Anticipation of the final program adoption gave a slight boost to SPD's market
May 7 2026
Latest PolitPro poll places Grüne at 16.6%, behind CDU and AfD but ahead of SPD, indicating stable but limited growth
Grüne rises to 22%3%
Recent polling data confirmed Grüne's position as a significant but not leading force, supporting a modest upward.
Apr 28 2026
AfD hits 51% in Berlin opinion polls but faces entrenched center-right and left coalitions
AfD jumps to 17%7%
AfD briefly peaked in Berlin polls at 51%, reflecting a surge in popularity, but persistent skepticism and strong coalitions limited further gains, causing volatile market reactions.
Apr 25 2026
BSW holds party congress, adopts detailed election program emphasizing peace, social justice, and housing policies
BSW finalized its election platform focusing on peace politics, minimum wage initiatives, and housing reforms. Despite this programmatic clarity, the party's polling remained low, and the market.
Apr 18 2026
Polls show slight recovery for Grüne to around 15-16%, reflecting renewed focus on environmental and social policies
Grüne jumps to 15%6%
Improved polling numbers in mid-April, possibly due to campaign efforts emphasizing green policies, led to a moderate.
Mar 28 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly ahead, with Grüne, Linke, and AfD nearly tied, reflecting a fragmented race
Grüne rises to 12%3%
An April BerlinTrend poll revealed a tight race with Grüne close to other parties, temporarily boosting market confidence in their chances.
Mar 28 2026
AfD Thuringia becomes strongest party in 2024 state election with 32.8%
AfD dips to 10%3%
AfD’s historic win in Thuringia as the strongest party in a German state parliament underscored its regional strength but also intensified scrutiny and resistance, possibly tempering Berlin market enthusiasm.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll confirms BSW at 4%, still below threshold, with CDU leading the race
BSW dips to 1%1%
Another poll by Civey reaffirmed BSW's weak position at 4%, maintaining market consensus that BSW was unlikely to surpass the 5% threshold, keeping the.
Mar 8 2026
Baden-Württemberg state election kicks off 2026 election season with AfD polling 21%
The start of the 2026 election season with AfD polling strongly in Baden-Württemberg (21%) indicated growing national relevance, though Berlin-specific prospects remained uncertain.
Feb 28 2026
AfD surges in Saxony-Anhalt state polls to 41%, far ahead of CDU
AfD rises to 15%3%
Infratest dimap polling showed AfD widening its lead in Saxony-Anhalt to 41%, signaling strong regional momentum in eastern Germany and raising hopes for electoral breakthroughs, which positively influenced market sentiment.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll reports BSW at 4%, still under the threshold but showing slight improvement
BSW jumps to 7%6%
The INSA poll showed a modest rise in BSW support to 4%, briefly lifting market optimism and causing a small.
Feb 16 2026
SPD Berlin Landesvorstand approves draft of the 2026 election program
SPD rises to 7%1%
Approval of the draft election program signaled SPD's preparation for the campaign, but market reaction was muted due to lack of major new policy announcements.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows BSW at 3% support, well below the 5% electoral threshold
A major January poll by Infratest dimap confirmed BSW's low voter support at 3%, far below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. This reinforced market skepticism about BSW's chances, keeping the.
Jan 9 2026
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate, intensifying competition for left-leaning voters
Grüne rises to 5%1%
SPD's nomination of Steffen Krach and focus on housing and social services increased pressure on Grüne to maintain their voter base, causing minor.
Jan 5 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD leads CDU with record 27% support
AfD rises to 11%4%
A GMS poll published in early January showed AfD at a record 27% nationwide, ahead of Chancellor Merz’s CDU at 24%, marking the party’s highest-ever polling and briefly boosting market optimism.
Dec 15 2025
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the
CDU rises to 61%1%
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the Union”
Dec 10 2025
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 25%, Grüne at 15% amid active campaigning by all parties
Grüne plunges to 1%49%
Late 2025 polls indicated CDU as the frontrunner with 25%, while Grüne lagged at 15%, signaling a weak position for the Greens and triggering a sharp.
Dec 2 2025
BSW announces two Spitzenkandidaten for Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election: Alexander King and Michael Lüders
BSW plunges to 1%49%
The BSW publicly revealed its lead candidates for the September 2026 Berlin state election, marking its first run for the Abgeordnetenhaus. Despite this, the party was new and polling weakly, leading to a rapid market.
Dec 1 2025
Saxony revokes firearms licenses of AfD members under secret decree citing right-wing extremist classification
AfD plunges to 6%44%
Saxony’s Interior Ministry confirmed a secret decree revoking and denying firearms licenses to AfD members and supporters, citing the party’s designation as a confirmed right-wing extremist group. This legal pressure likely undermined confidence in AfD’s electoral prospects in Berlin, triggering a sharp.
Aug 31 2025
Steffen Krach selected as SPD lead candidate for 2026 Berlin state election
SPD rises to 9%3%
The nomination of Steffen Krach, Berlin Police president, as lead candidate was seen as a positive step for SPD's campaign, causing a modest
Mar 1 2024
SPD and CDU begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin
SPD rises to 9%3%
The start of coalition talks with CDU raised some hopes for SPD's influence in government, slightly stabilizing the market
Dec 12 2023
SPD suffers worst result in over a century with 18.4% in Berlin repeat state election, barely ahead of the Greens by 53 votes
SPD plunges to 8%42%
The SPD's historic low vote share in the 2023 repeat election shocked the market, causing a sharp drop in confidence about SPD winning the 2026 election.
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Часто задаваемые вопросы
«Победитель выборов в Берлин» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 8 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «ХДС» с 32%, за ним следует «Зелёные» с 23%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 32¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 32%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.
На сегодняшний день «Победитель выборов в Берлин» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $2.6 million с момента запуска рынка Dec 2, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.
Чтобы торговать на «Победитель выборов в Берлин», просмотри 8 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.
Текущий фаворит для «Победитель выборов в Берлин» — «ХДС» с 32%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 32%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Зелёные» с 23%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.
Правила разрешения «Победитель выборов в Берлин» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.
Да. Тебе не нужно торговать, чтобы оставаться в курсе. Эта страница служит трекером в реальном времени для «Победитель выборов в Берлин». Вероятности исходов обновляются в реальном времени по мере поступления новых сделок. Ты можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки и читать раздел комментариев, чтобы узнать мнение других трейдеров. Ты также можешь использовать фильтры временного диапазона на графике, чтобы увидеть, как менялись коэффициенты со временем.
Коэффициенты Polymarket устанавливаются реальными трейдерами, вкладывающими реальные деньги в свои убеждения, что обычно приводит к точным прогнозам. С объёмом торгов $2.6 million по “Победитель выборов в Берлин” эти цены агрегируют коллективные знания и убеждённость тысяч участников — часто превосходя опросы, экспертные прогнозы и традиционные исследования. Рынки прогнозов, такие как Polymarket, имеют сильный послужной список точности, особенно когда события приближаются к дате разрешения. Например, месячный показатель точности Polymarket составляет 94%. Для получения последних статистических данных о точности прогнозов Polymarket посети страницу точности на Polymarket.
Чтобы совершить первую сделку на «Победитель выборов в Берлин», зарегистрируй бесплатный аккаунт на Polymarket и пополни его с помощью криптовалюты, кредитной или дебетовой карты или банковского перевода. После пополнения аккаунта вернись на эту страницу, выбери исход, на который хочешь торговать, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты новичок на рынках прогнозов, нажми на ссылку «Как это работает» вверху любой страницы Polymarket для пошагового руководства.
На Polymarket цена каждого исхода представляет подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Цена 32¢ для «ХДС» на рынке «Победитель выборов в Берлин» означает, что трейдеры коллективно оценивают вероятность того, что «ХДС» будет правильным результатом, примерно в 32%. Если ты купишь акции «Да» по 32¢ и исход окажется правильным, ты получишь $1,00 за акцию — прибыль 68¢ за акцию. Если нет — эти акции будут стоить $0.
Рынок «Победитель выборов в Берлин» запланирован к разрешению примерно Sep 20, 2026. Это означает, что торговля остаётся открытой, а коэффициенты продолжат меняться до этой даты. Точные сроки разрешения зависят от момента появления официального результата, как описано в разделе «Правила».
Рынок «Победитель выборов в Берлин» имеет растущая дискуссия из 7 комментариев, где трейдеры делятся своим анализом, обсуждают исходы и последние события. Прокрути вниз до раздела комментариев, чтобы прочитать, что думают другие участники. Ты также можешь фильтровать по «Топ-держателям» или проверить вкладку «Активность» для ленты сделок в реальном времени.
Polymarket — крупнейший в мире рынок прогнозов, где ты можешь оставаться в курсе событий и зарабатывать на своих знаниях о реальных событиях. Трейдеры покупают и продают акции на исходы по темам от политики и выборов до криптовалют, финансов, спорта, технологий и культуры, включая рынки вроде «Победитель выборов в Берлин». Цены отражают вероятности в реальном времени, подкреплённые финансовыми убеждениями, зачастую обеспечивая более быстрые и точные сигналы, чем опросы, эксперты или традиционные исследования.
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