Recent polls show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, typically in the 3-to-6-point range ahead of the October 4 vote. This positioning drives trader consensus toward a sub-5% victory margin for Lula as the leading outcome, with a comparable narrow win for Flávio also heavily priced. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father’s endorsement, while Lula’s support remains steady amid approval ratings near 45% and economic pressures. A fragmented field with multiple right-of-center candidates and recent polling volatility keep the contest close, raising the likelihood of either a tight Lula win or a competitive Bolsonaro surge before registration deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПервый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы
Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы
Лула да Силва <5% 31%
Флавиу Болсонару <5% 25%
Лула да Силва 5–10% 18%
Лула да Силва 10–15% 8.1%
$231,590 Объем
$231,590 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Лула да Силва 15%+
3%
Лула да Силва 10–15%
8%
Лула да Силва 5–10%
18%
Лула да Силва <5%
42%
Флавио Болсонару 10%+
2%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10%
6%
Флавиу Болсонару <5%
25%
Победа Ренана Сантоса
5%
Победа Тарсилиу де Фрейтаса
1%
Победа Ратиньо Жуниора
<1%
Другой
10%
Лула да Силва <5% 31%
Флавиу Болсонару <5% 25%
Лула да Силва 5–10% 18%
Лула да Силва 10–15% 8.1%
$231,590 Объем
$231,590 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Лула да Силва 15%+
$4,601 Объем
3%
Лула да Силва 10–15%
$2,627 Объем
8%
Лула да Силва 5–10%
$6,808 Объем
18%
Лула да Силва <5%
$2,923 Объем
42%
Флавио Болсонару 10%+
$1,984 Объем
2%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10%
$2,309 Объем
6%
Флавиу Болсонару <5%
$4,026 Объем
25%
Победа Ренана Сантоса
$200,567 Объем
5%
Победа Тарсилиу де Фрейтаса
$1,712 Объем
1%
Победа Ратиньо Жуниора
$1,774 Объем
<1%
Другой
$2,258 Объем
10%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, typically in the 3-to-6-point range ahead of the October 4 vote. This positioning drives trader consensus toward a sub-5% victory margin for Lula as the leading outcome, with a comparable narrow win for Flávio also heavily priced. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father’s endorsement, while Lula’s support remains steady amid approval ratings near 45% and economic pressures. A fragmented field with multiple right-of-center candidates and recent polling volatility keep the contest close, raising the likelihood of either a tight Lula win or a competitive Bolsonaro surge before registration deadlines.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Объем
$231,590Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, typically in the 3-to-6-point range ahead of the October 4 vote. This positioning drives trader consensus toward a sub-5% victory margin for Lula as the leading outcome, with a comparable narrow win for Flávio also heavily priced. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father’s endorsement, while Lula’s support remains steady amid approval ratings near 45% and economic pressures. A fragmented field with multiple right-of-center candidates and recent polling volatility keep the contest close, raising the likelihood of either a tight Lula win or a competitive Bolsonaro surge before registration deadlines.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$231,590Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, typically in the 3-to-6-point range ahead of the October 4 vote. This positioning drives trader consensus toward a sub-5% victory margin for Lula as the leading outcome, with a comparable narrow win for Flávio also heavily priced. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father’s endorsement, while Lula’s support remains steady amid approval ratings near 45% and economic pressures. A fragmented field with multiple right-of-center candidates and recent polling volatility keep the contest close, raising the likelihood of either a tight Lula win or a competitive Bolsonaro surge before registration deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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