Lateefah Simon, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024 to succeed Barbara Lee, secured 84% of the vote in the June 2026 top-two primary against challenger Jamie Joyce, advancing both to the November general under California's rules. The solidly Democratic district, encompassing parts of Alameda County including Oakland and Berkeley, favors Simon through her established fundraising edge—raising over $1.4 million compared to Joyce's roughly $31,000—and institutional support within the party. Cook Political Report and similar forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican presence and strong base consolidation behind the sitting representative. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Simon aligns with these structural advantages, though low-probability shifts could arise from unforeseen developments such as major scandals, health events, or national political realignments before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-12 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей (физическое лицо)
CA-12 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей (физическое лицо)
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Латифа Саймон
95%
Джейми Джойс
6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Латифа Саймон
$1,454 Объем
95%
Джейми Джойс
$1,107 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Lateefah Simon, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024 to succeed Barbara Lee, secured 84% of the vote in the June 2026 top-two primary against challenger Jamie Joyce, advancing both to the November general under California's rules. The solidly Democratic district, encompassing parts of Alameda County including Oakland and Berkeley, favors Simon through her established fundraising edge—raising over $1.4 million compared to Joyce's roughly $31,000—and institutional support within the party. Cook Political Report and similar forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican presence and strong base consolidation behind the sitting representative. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Simon aligns with these structural advantages, though low-probability shifts could arise from unforeseen developments such as major scandals, health events, or national political realignments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jul 9, 2026, 10:03 PM ET
Объем
$2,561Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 9, 2026, 10:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Lateefah Simon, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024 to succeed Barbara Lee, secured 84% of the vote in the June 2026 top-two primary against challenger Jamie Joyce, advancing both to the November general under California's rules. The solidly Democratic district, encompassing parts of Alameda County including Oakland and Berkeley, favors Simon through her established fundraising edge—raising over $1.4 million compared to Joyce's roughly $31,000—and institutional support within the party. Cook Political Report and similar forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican presence and strong base consolidation behind the sitting representative. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Simon aligns with these structural advantages, though low-probability shifts could arise from unforeseen developments such as major scandals, health events, or national political realignments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$2,561Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 9, 2026, 10:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Lateefah Simon, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024 to succeed Barbara Lee, secured 84% of the vote in the June 2026 top-two primary against challenger Jamie Joyce, advancing both to the November general under California's rules. The solidly Democratic district, encompassing parts of Alameda County including Oakland and Berkeley, favors Simon through her established fundraising edge—raising over $1.4 million compared to Joyce's roughly $31,000—and institutional support within the party. Cook Political Report and similar forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican presence and strong base consolidation behind the sitting representative. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Simon aligns with these structural advantages, though low-probability shifts could arise from unforeseen developments such as major scandals, health events, or national political realignments before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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