Recent announcements by senior Democrats, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jerry Nadler, and several others citing age or generational transition, have brought the total of House members not seeking re-election to 23 as of early August 2026, aligning with the narrow lead in the 20–23 bin. Additional departures stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats and redistricting pressures in certain states. With primaries and filing deadlines still ahead in multiple districts, further announcements or shifts could push the final count higher or stabilize it near current levels. Trader consensus remains closely split between the leading ranges because the ultimate total hinges on whether more incumbents opt out before the November election, reflecting the typical late-cycle retirement pattern in midterm cycles without a dominant wave of additional exits.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено20–23 44.5%
24–27 39%
28–31 18.2%
32–35 12.1%
$44,551 Объем
$44,551 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
Меньше 20
6%
20–23
45%
24–27
39%
28–31
10%
32–35
7%
36–39
1%
40+
1%
20–23 44.5%
24–27 39%
28–31 18.2%
32–35 12.1%
$44,551 Объем
$44,551 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
Меньше 20
$17,793 Объем
6%
20–23
$9,759 Объем
45%
24–27
$7,530 Объем
39%
28–31
$1,924 Объем
10%
32–35
$4,526 Объем
7%
36–39
$1,348 Объем
1%
40+
$1,671 Объем
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements by senior Democrats, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jerry Nadler, and several others citing age or generational transition, have brought the total of House members not seeking re-election to 23 as of early August 2026, aligning with the narrow lead in the 20–23 bin. Additional departures stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats and redistricting pressures in certain states. With primaries and filing deadlines still ahead in multiple districts, further announcements or shifts could push the final count higher or stabilize it near current levels. Trader consensus remains closely split between the leading ranges because the ultimate total hinges on whether more incumbents opt out before the November election, reflecting the typical late-cycle retirement pattern in midterm cycles without a dominant wave of additional exits.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Объем
$44,551Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements by senior Democrats, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jerry Nadler, and several others citing age or generational transition, have brought the total of House members not seeking re-election to 23 as of early August 2026, aligning with the narrow lead in the 20–23 bin. Additional departures stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats and redistricting pressures in certain states. With primaries and filing deadlines still ahead in multiple districts, further announcements or shifts could push the final count higher or stabilize it near current levels. Trader consensus remains closely split between the leading ranges because the ultimate total hinges on whether more incumbents opt out before the November election, reflecting the typical late-cycle retirement pattern in midterm cycles without a dominant wave of additional exits.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$44,551Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent announcements by senior Democrats, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jerry Nadler, and several others citing age or generational transition, have brought the total of House members not seeking re-election to 23 as of early August 2026, aligning with the narrow lead in the 20–23 bin. Additional departures stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats and redistricting pressures in certain states. With primaries and filing deadlines still ahead in multiple districts, further announcements or shifts could push the final count higher or stabilize it near current levels. Trader consensus remains closely split between the leading ranges because the ultimate total hinges on whether more incumbents opt out before the November election, reflecting the typical late-cycle retirement pattern in midterm cycles without a dominant wave of additional exits.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли количество членов Палаты представителей от Республиканской партии, которые уйдут в отставку в 2026 году, от 36 до 39 включительно?
79%
Да
Будет ли число членов Сената от Республиканской партии, уходящих в отставку в 2026 году, ровно 7?
77%
Да
В период избирательной кампании 2026 года смогут ли действующие члены Палаты представителей от Демократической партии не победить в числе от десяти до двенадцати праймериз?
46%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы