As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and congressional tracking reports list approximately 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin. This total includes both full retirements from public office and moves to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, driven by a wave of announcements from longer-serving members following the 2024 cycle. Recent developments include high-profile exits such as Nancy Pelosi’s decision and several Illinois and New York departures, while additional filings remain possible ahead of state deadlines. Trader consensus around the current range reflects the established count, the limited remaining time for new announcements, and historical patterns of modest late-cycle shifts in open-seat decisions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено20–23 48.0%
24–27 34%
28–31 18.2%
40+ 7.3%
$45,059 Объем
$45,059 Объем
30 авг. 2026 г.
Меньше 20
<1%
20–23
48%
24–27
34%
28–31
10%
32–35
6%
36–39
<1%
40+
7%
20–23 48.0%
24–27 34%
28–31 18.2%
40+ 7.3%
$45,059 Объем
$45,059 Объем
30 авг. 2026 г.
Меньше 20
$17,832 Объем
<1%
20–23
$9,852 Объем
48%
24–27
$7,874 Объем
34%
28–31
$1,930 Объем
10%
32–35
$4,533 Объем
6%
36–39
$1,355 Объем
<1%
40+
$1,683 Объем
7%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and congressional tracking reports list approximately 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin. This total includes both full retirements from public office and moves to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, driven by a wave of announcements from longer-serving members following the 2024 cycle. Recent developments include high-profile exits such as Nancy Pelosi’s decision and several Illinois and New York departures, while additional filings remain possible ahead of state deadlines. Trader consensus around the current range reflects the established count, the limited remaining time for new announcements, and historical patterns of modest late-cycle shifts in open-seat decisions.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Объем
$45,059Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and congressional tracking reports list approximately 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin. This total includes both full retirements from public office and moves to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, driven by a wave of announcements from longer-serving members following the 2024 cycle. Recent developments include high-profile exits such as Nancy Pelosi’s decision and several Illinois and New York departures, while additional filings remain possible ahead of state deadlines. Trader consensus around the current range reflects the established count, the limited remaining time for new announcements, and historical patterns of modest late-cycle shifts in open-seat decisions.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$45,059Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and congressional tracking reports list approximately 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin. This total includes both full retirements from public office and moves to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, driven by a wave of announcements from longer-serving members following the 2024 cycle. Recent developments include high-profile exits such as Nancy Pelosi’s decision and several Illinois and New York departures, while additional filings remain possible ahead of state deadlines. Trader consensus around the current range reflects the established count, the limited remaining time for new announcements, and historical patterns of modest late-cycle shifts in open-seat decisions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли количество членов Палаты представителей от Республиканской партии, которые уйдут в отставку в 2026 году, от 36 до 39 включительно?
83%
Да
Будет ли число членов Сената от Республиканской партии, уходящих в отставку в 2026 году, ровно 7?
77%
Да
В период избирательной кампании 2026 года смогут ли действующие члены Палаты представителей от Демократической партии не победить в числе от десяти до двенадцати праймериз?
58%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы