Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's strong consensus around that total. Key retirements include Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), and Alan Armstrong (OK), with announcements spanning late 2025 into mid-2026. These decisions reflect standard factors such as age, leadership transitions, and personal timing rather than coordinated waves. No additional Republican announcements have occurred in recent weeks, and filing deadlines in most states leave limited room for further shifts before the November election. Traders therefore price modest probabilities on higher totals like 9 or 11, reflecting the chance of one or two late decisions, while viewing lower figures as unlikely given confirmed exits.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено7 77%
11 6.7%
9 5.4%
5 3.4%
$101,009 Объем
$101,009 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
77%
8
1%
9
5%
10
2%
11
7%
12+
1%
7 77%
11 6.7%
9 5.4%
5 3.4%
$101,009 Объем
$101,009 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
<5
$22,734 Объем
1%
5
$17,485 Объем
3%
6
$27,247 Объем
1%
7
$16,967 Объем
77%
8
$4,602 Объем
1%
9
$2,208 Объем
5%
10
$1,839 Объем
2%
11
$2,845 Объем
7%
12+
$5,082 Объем
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's strong consensus around that total. Key retirements include Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), and Alan Armstrong (OK), with announcements spanning late 2025 into mid-2026. These decisions reflect standard factors such as age, leadership transitions, and personal timing rather than coordinated waves. No additional Republican announcements have occurred in recent weeks, and filing deadlines in most states leave limited room for further shifts before the November election. Traders therefore price modest probabilities on higher totals like 9 or 11, reflecting the chance of one or two late decisions, while viewing lower figures as unlikely given confirmed exits.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Объем
$101,009Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's strong consensus around that total. Key retirements include Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), and Alan Armstrong (OK), with announcements spanning late 2025 into mid-2026. These decisions reflect standard factors such as age, leadership transitions, and personal timing rather than coordinated waves. No additional Republican announcements have occurred in recent weeks, and filing deadlines in most states leave limited room for further shifts before the November election. Traders therefore price modest probabilities on higher totals like 9 or 11, reflecting the chance of one or two late decisions, while viewing lower figures as unlikely given confirmed exits.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$101,009Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's strong consensus around that total. Key retirements include Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), and Alan Armstrong (OK), with announcements spanning late 2025 into mid-2026. These decisions reflect standard factors such as age, leadership transitions, and personal timing rather than coordinated waves. No additional Republican announcements have occurred in recent weeks, and filing deadlines in most states leave limited room for further shifts before the November election. Traders therefore price modest probabilities on higher totals like 9 or 11, reflecting the chance of one or two late decisions, while viewing lower figures as unlikely given confirmed exits.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли количество членов Палаты представителей от Республиканской партии, которые уйдут в отставку в 2026 году, от 36 до 39 включительно?
81%
Да
Будет ли число демократов Палаты представителей, ушедших в отставку в 2026 году, от 20 до 23 включительно?
40%
Да
Выиграют ли все действующие сенаторы-демократы свои праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
79%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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