Trader consensus in this market centers on seven Republican senators not seeking re-election for 2026, as that is the confirmed total announced through mid-May 2026. Key factors include individual retirement decisions driven by age, shifting party dynamics, and opportunities for other offices, with Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Steve Daines of Montana, Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama—who is running for governor—accounting for the count. Recent March 2026 announcements by Armstrong and Daines reinforced the current total without triggering additional retirements, while earlier decisions by McConnell in early 2025 and others established the baseline. The elevated probability for seven reflects limited further announcements expected before filing deadlines, though late-cycle shifts remain possible amid ongoing midterm pressures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено7 64%
11 18.4%
8 14.6%
10 7.5%
$73,731 Объем
$73,731 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
<5
1%
5
5%
6
10%
7
64%
8
18%
9
3%
10
7%
11
18%
12+
1%
7 64%
11 18.4%
8 14.6%
10 7.5%
$73,731 Объем
$73,731 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
<5
$20,070 Объем
1%
5
$15,535 Объем
5%
6
$26,450 Объем
10%
7
$2,145 Объем
64%
8
$1,599 Объем
18%
9
$1,328 Объем
3%
10
$1,265 Объем
7%
11
$923 Объем
18%
12+
$4,416 Объем
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus in this market centers on seven Republican senators not seeking re-election for 2026, as that is the confirmed total announced through mid-May 2026. Key factors include individual retirement decisions driven by age, shifting party dynamics, and opportunities for other offices, with Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Steve Daines of Montana, Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama—who is running for governor—accounting for the count. Recent March 2026 announcements by Armstrong and Daines reinforced the current total without triggering additional retirements, while earlier decisions by McConnell in early 2025 and others established the baseline. The elevated probability for seven reflects limited further announcements expected before filing deadlines, though late-cycle shifts remain possible amid ongoing midterm pressures.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Объем
$73,731Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus in this market centers on seven Republican senators not seeking re-election for 2026, as that is the confirmed total announced through mid-May 2026. Key factors include individual retirement decisions driven by age, shifting party dynamics, and opportunities for other offices, with Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Steve Daines of Montana, Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama—who is running for governor—accounting for the count. Recent March 2026 announcements by Armstrong and Daines reinforced the current total without triggering additional retirements, while earlier decisions by McConnell in early 2025 and others established the baseline. The elevated probability for seven reflects limited further announcements expected before filing deadlines, though late-cycle shifts remain possible amid ongoing midterm pressures.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$73,731Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in this market centers on seven Republican senators not seeking re-election for 2026, as that is the confirmed total announced through mid-May 2026. Key factors include individual retirement decisions driven by age, shifting party dynamics, and opportunities for other offices, with Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Steve Daines of Montana, Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama—who is running for governor—accounting for the count. Recent March 2026 announcements by Armstrong and Daines reinforced the current total without triggering additional retirements, while earlier decisions by McConnell in early 2025 and others established the baseline. The elevated probability for seven reflects limited further announcements expected before filing deadlines, though late-cycle shifts remain possible amid ongoing midterm pressures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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