**Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 currently stand at 37**, according to Ballotpedia’s August 2026 tracking, placing the total squarely in the 36–39 range that commands 90% market probability. This elevated figure reflects a sustained wave of departures announced across 2025 and into mid-2026, driven by a combination of retirements from public office (17 Republicans), bids for Senate seats (9), and campaigns for governor or other state offices (roughly 10). Recent additions, including Rep. Chuck Edwards’ August 5 announcement, have kept the count stable near the upper end of historical midterm patterns. Traders appear to view further major shifts as unlikely absent unexpected primary losses or late withdrawals before the November ballot deadline, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to bins outside 36–39.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько членов Республиканской палаты не будет баллотироваться в 2026 году?
Сколько членов Республиканской палаты не будет баллотироваться в 2026 году?
36–39 90.0%
40–43 5.5%
44+ 1.5%
32–35 1.4%
$72,644 Объем
$72,644 Объем
30 авг. 2026 г.
<24
1%
24–27
1%
28–31
1%
32–35
1%
36–39
90%
40–43
6%
44+
2%
36–39 90.0%
40–43 5.5%
44+ 1.5%
32–35 1.4%
$72,644 Объем
$72,644 Объем
30 авг. 2026 г.
<24
$6,266 Объем
1%
24–27
$20,168 Объем
1%
28–31
$23,648 Объем
1%
32–35
$6,284 Объем
1%
36–39
$8,437 Объем
90%
40–43
$4,228 Объем
6%
44+
$3,613 Объем
2%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 currently stand at 37**, according to Ballotpedia’s August 2026 tracking, placing the total squarely in the 36–39 range that commands 90% market probability. This elevated figure reflects a sustained wave of departures announced across 2025 and into mid-2026, driven by a combination of retirements from public office (17 Republicans), bids for Senate seats (9), and campaigns for governor or other state offices (roughly 10). Recent additions, including Rep. Chuck Edwards’ August 5 announcement, have kept the count stable near the upper end of historical midterm patterns. Traders appear to view further major shifts as unlikely absent unexpected primary losses or late withdrawals before the November ballot deadline, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to bins outside 36–39.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Объем
$72,644Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 currently stand at 37**, according to Ballotpedia’s August 2026 tracking, placing the total squarely in the 36–39 range that commands 90% market probability. This elevated figure reflects a sustained wave of departures announced across 2025 and into mid-2026, driven by a combination of retirements from public office (17 Republicans), bids for Senate seats (9), and campaigns for governor or other state offices (roughly 10). Recent additions, including Rep. Chuck Edwards’ August 5 announcement, have kept the count stable near the upper end of historical midterm patterns. Traders appear to view further major shifts as unlikely absent unexpected primary losses or late withdrawals before the November ballot deadline, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to bins outside 36–39.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$72,644Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 currently stand at 37**, according to Ballotpedia’s August 2026 tracking, placing the total squarely in the 36–39 range that commands 90% market probability. This elevated figure reflects a sustained wave of departures announced across 2025 and into mid-2026, driven by a combination of retirements from public office (17 Republicans), bids for Senate seats (9), and campaigns for governor or other state offices (roughly 10). Recent additions, including Rep. Chuck Edwards’ August 5 announcement, have kept the count stable near the upper end of historical midterm patterns. Traders appear to view further major shifts as unlikely absent unexpected primary losses or late withdrawals before the November ballot deadline, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to bins outside 36–39.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли число членов Сената от Республиканской партии, уходящих в отставку в 2026 году, ровно 7?
88%
Да
Будет ли число демократов Палаты представителей, ушедших в отставку в 2026 году, от 20 до 23 включительно?
58%
Да
Потерпят ли поражение действующие республиканцы в Палате представителей на четырёх-шести праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
94%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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