xAI has missed repeated Grok 5 targets after confirming training began in January 2026, with Q1 and Q2 2026 windows both passing without a release. The company, now integrated as SpaceX AI, instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July followed by rapid 4.6 and 4.7 updates, while scaling Colossus 2 infrastructure for the much larger 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model. Musk has reiterated a pre-2026 year-end goal incorporating extensive SpaceX engineering data. Trader consensus on Polymarket now centers on a December 31 resolution at roughly 63–70% implied probability, reflecting skepticism from prior slips alongside the aggressive compute ramp and competitive pressure from other frontier large language models.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоGrok 5 выпустил...?
Grok 5 выпустил...?
НОВОЕ
31 окт. 2026 г.
31 августа
<1%
31 октября
18%
30 ноября
22%
31 декабря
70%
$8,565 Объем
31 августа
$3,541 Объем
<1%
31 октября
$1,769 Объем
18%
30 ноября
$21 Объем
22%
31 декабря
$1,711 Объем
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI has missed repeated Grok 5 targets after confirming training began in January 2026, with Q1 and Q2 2026 windows both passing without a release. The company, now integrated as SpaceX AI, instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July followed by rapid 4.6 and 4.7 updates, while scaling Colossus 2 infrastructure for the much larger 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model. Musk has reiterated a pre-2026 year-end goal incorporating extensive SpaceX engineering data. Trader consensus on Polymarket now centers on a December 31 resolution at roughly 63–70% implied probability, reflecting skepticism from prior slips alongside the aggressive compute ramp and competitive pressure from other frontier large language models.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Объем
$8,565Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI has missed repeated Grok 5 targets after confirming training began in January 2026, with Q1 and Q2 2026 windows both passing without a release. The company, now integrated as SpaceX AI, instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July followed by rapid 4.6 and 4.7 updates, while scaling Colossus 2 infrastructure for the much larger 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model. Musk has reiterated a pre-2026 year-end goal incorporating extensive SpaceX engineering data. Trader consensus on Polymarket now centers on a December 31 resolution at roughly 63–70% implied probability, reflecting skepticism from prior slips alongside the aggressive compute ramp and competitive pressure from other frontier large language models.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$8,565Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...xAI has missed repeated Grok 5 targets after confirming training began in January 2026, with Q1 and Q2 2026 windows both passing without a release. The company, now integrated as SpaceX AI, instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July followed by rapid 4.6 and 4.7 updates, while scaling Colossus 2 infrastructure for the much larger 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model. Musk has reiterated a pre-2026 year-end goal incorporating extensive SpaceX engineering data. Trader consensus on Polymarket now centers on a December 31 resolution at roughly 63–70% implied probability, reflecting skepticism from prior slips alongside the aggressive compute ramp and competitive pressure from other frontier large language models.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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