**Trader consensus has converged sharply on 35°C as the highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 13, reflecting official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and aligned regional models.** Persistent cloud cover combined with scattered thunderstorms and heavy rain has limited surface heating and solar insolation, keeping daytime maxima capped near this threshold despite typical August humidity and subtropical conditions. These forecasts incorporate real-time observational data showing suppressed convective available potential energy and steering patterns that favor widespread overcast skies rather than clear, intense heating. The extremely high implied probability accounts for the narrow uncertainty band once midday observations confirm the cap. A realistic challenge would require rapid unexpected sky clearance allowing stronger radiative warming or a significant forecast revision from monitoring agencies, though current model consensus and on-ground conditions make substantial deviation unlikely before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Гуанчжоу 13 августа?
35°C 99.7%
36°C <1%
29°C или ниже <1%
30°C <1%
$61,470 Объем
$61,470 Объем
29°C или ниже
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
100%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C или выше
<1%
35°C 99.7%
36°C <1%
29°C или ниже <1%
30°C <1%
$61,470 Объем
$61,470 Объем
29°C или ниже
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
100%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C или выше
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus has converged sharply on 35°C as the highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 13, reflecting official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and aligned regional models.** Persistent cloud cover combined with scattered thunderstorms and heavy rain has limited surface heating and solar insolation, keeping daytime maxima capped near this threshold despite typical August humidity and subtropical conditions. These forecasts incorporate real-time observational data showing suppressed convective available potential energy and steering patterns that favor widespread overcast skies rather than clear, intense heating. The extremely high implied probability accounts for the narrow uncertainty band once midday observations confirm the cap. A realistic challenge would require rapid unexpected sky clearance allowing stronger radiative warming or a significant forecast revision from monitoring agencies, though current model consensus and on-ground conditions make substantial deviation unlikely before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено

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