Current forecast models from MetService, GFS, and ECMWF indicate a daily maximum near 15–16°C for Wellington on September 19, driven by northerly flow advecting milder air ahead of a trough, with partly cloudy skies and winds gusting 20–35 km/h that limit extreme warming. This aligns with the market’s dominant 16°C outcome at 61% implied probability, as recent runs show peak readings in the mid-teens rather than the seasonal average near 12–13°C. Minor model spread around cloud cover and exact wind timing supports secondary weight on 15°C (28.5%), while the low odds for 17°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger warm advection before a cooler southerly change. Updated guidance through September 18 will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Веллингтоне 19 сентября?
Самая высокая температура в Веллингтоне 19 сентября?
16°C 61%
15°C 22%
17°C 13%
18°C 2.6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
19 сент. 2026 г.
10°C или ниже
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
22%
16°C
61%
17°C
13%
18°C
3%
19°C
<1%
20°C или выше
<1%
16°C 61%
15°C 22%
17°C 13%
18°C 2.6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
19 сент. 2026 г.
10°C или ниже
$261 Объем
<1%
11°C
$41 Объем
<1%
12°C
$347 Объем
1%
13°C
$92 Объем
<1%
14°C
$132 Объем
2%
15°C
$1,478 Объем
22%
16°C
$625 Объем
61%
17°C
$295 Объем
13%
18°C
$119 Объем
3%
19°C
$41 Объем
<1%
20°C или выше
$261 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from MetService, GFS, and ECMWF indicate a daily maximum near 15–16°C for Wellington on September 19, driven by northerly flow advecting milder air ahead of a trough, with partly cloudy skies and winds gusting 20–35 km/h that limit extreme warming. This aligns with the market’s dominant 16°C outcome at 61% implied probability, as recent runs show peak readings in the mid-teens rather than the seasonal average near 12–13°C. Minor model spread around cloud cover and exact wind timing supports secondary weight on 15°C (28.5%), while the low odds for 17°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger warm advection before a cooler southerly change. Updated guidance through September 18 will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Объем
$3,693Дата окончания
19 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from MetService, GFS, and ECMWF indicate a daily maximum near 15–16°C for Wellington on September 19, driven by northerly flow advecting milder air ahead of a trough, with partly cloudy skies and winds gusting 20–35 km/h that limit extreme warming. This aligns with the market’s dominant 16°C outcome at 61% implied probability, as recent runs show peak readings in the mid-teens rather than the seasonal average near 12–13°C. Minor model spread around cloud cover and exact wind timing supports secondary weight on 15°C (28.5%), while the low odds for 17°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger warm advection before a cooler southerly change. Updated guidance through September 18 will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$3,693Дата окончания
19 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from MetService, GFS, and ECMWF indicate a daily maximum near 15–16°C for Wellington on September 19, driven by northerly flow advecting milder air ahead of a trough, with partly cloudy skies and winds gusting 20–35 km/h that limit extreme warming. This aligns with the market’s dominant 16°C outcome at 61% implied probability, as recent runs show peak readings in the mid-teens rather than the seasonal average near 12–13°C. Minor model spread around cloud cover and exact wind timing supports secondary weight on 15°C (28.5%), while the low odds for 17°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger warm advection before a cooler southerly change. Updated guidance through September 18 will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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