Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicate a cold air mass over the Gulf of Mexico is steering northerly flow and enhanced cloud cover into the Valley of Mexico, supporting overnight radiative cooling under partly clear conditions on September 19. With Mexico City’s 2,240 m elevation and typical September minimums near 12–13 °C, traders are weighting the possibility of readings dipping to 5 °C or below if winds remain light and precipitation ends early, elevating that bin to 42.5 % implied probability. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around 11–14 °C lows, keeping the 13 °C and 15 °C+ outcomes competitive at 32 % and 30.5 %. Updated model runs tonight will clarify whether the cold-air advection strengthens or weakens before the daily minimum is recorded.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Мехико 19 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Мехико 19 сентября?
5°C или ниже 60%
14°C 44%
13°C 40%
10°C 39%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
19 сент. 2026 г.
5°C или ниже
60%
6°C
2%
7°C
13%
8°C
13%
9°C
36%
10°C
39%
11°C
22%
12°C
21%
13°C
29%
14°C
35%
15°C или выше
32%
5°C или ниже 60%
14°C 44%
13°C 40%
10°C 39%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
19 сент. 2026 г.
5°C или ниже
$100 Объем
60%
6°C
$0 Объем
2%
7°C
$0 Объем
13%
8°C
$0 Объем
13%
9°C
$0 Объем
36%
10°C
$0 Объем
39%
11°C
$0 Объем
22%
12°C
$0 Объем
21%
13°C
$12 Объем
29%
14°C
$10 Объем
35%
15°C или выше
$0 Объем
32%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicate a cold air mass over the Gulf of Mexico is steering northerly flow and enhanced cloud cover into the Valley of Mexico, supporting overnight radiative cooling under partly clear conditions on September 19. With Mexico City’s 2,240 m elevation and typical September minimums near 12–13 °C, traders are weighting the possibility of readings dipping to 5 °C or below if winds remain light and precipitation ends early, elevating that bin to 42.5 % implied probability. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around 11–14 °C lows, keeping the 13 °C and 15 °C+ outcomes competitive at 32 % and 30.5 %. Updated model runs tonight will clarify whether the cold-air advection strengthens or weakens before the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 17, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Объем
$122Дата окончания
19 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 17, 2026, 8:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicate a cold air mass over the Gulf of Mexico is steering northerly flow and enhanced cloud cover into the Valley of Mexico, supporting overnight radiative cooling under partly clear conditions on September 19. With Mexico City’s 2,240 m elevation and typical September minimums near 12–13 °C, traders are weighting the possibility of readings dipping to 5 °C or below if winds remain light and precipitation ends early, elevating that bin to 42.5 % implied probability. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around 11–14 °C lows, keeping the 13 °C and 15 °C+ outcomes competitive at 32 % and 30.5 %. Updated model runs tonight will clarify whether the cold-air advection strengthens or weakens before the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$122Дата окончания
19 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 17, 2026, 8:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicate a cold air mass over the Gulf of Mexico is steering northerly flow and enhanced cloud cover into the Valley of Mexico, supporting overnight radiative cooling under partly clear conditions on September 19. With Mexico City’s 2,240 m elevation and typical September minimums near 12–13 °C, traders are weighting the possibility of readings dipping to 5 °C or below if winds remain light and precipitation ends early, elevating that bin to 42.5 % implied probability. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around 11–14 °C lows, keeping the 13 °C and 15 °C+ outcomes competitive at 32 % and 30.5 %. Updated model runs tonight will clarify whether the cold-air advection strengthens or weakens before the daily minimum is recorded.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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