Recent forecasts from sources including WeatherBug, PredictWind, and Yr.no indicate a September 18 high near 24–26 °C in Chengdu, with scattered showers and variable cloud cover limiting daytime heating. Trader consensus clusters on 24–27 °C because recent cool, rainy conditions (highs of 23–24 °C) have depressed temperatures below the long-term September average of ~25 °C, while model guidance shows modest clearing potential that could allow brief warming. Key differentiating factors include the degree of afternoon insolation under lingering monsoon moisture, boundary-layer humidity that suppresses surface maxima, and steering flow that may advect slightly warmer air from the east. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles over the next 48 hours will likely narrow resolution around the 25–26 °C threshold.