**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models indicate a minimum temperature for Miami on September 18 around 77–78°F, aligning with the market's top outcomes clustered near 76–79°F.** Persistent easterly flow and high atmospheric moisture support scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the period, which limit nocturnal radiative cooling by maintaining cloud cover and adding latent heat from precipitation. Light northeast winds overnight (generally 5–8 mph) allow modest cooling but not enough for deeper drops typical of drier, calmer conditions. This pattern matches late-September climatology in South Florida, where urban heat island effects and Gulf Stream influence keep overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 70s absent a strong frontal passage or unusual high-pressure subsidence. Model consensus shows little disagreement on the broad regime, but small variations in storm timing, exact cloud cover duration, or dewpoint trajectories can shift the precise minimum by 1–2°F—explaining why the 74–75°F, 76–77°F, and 78–79°F bins each hold substantial implied probability. Updated NWS guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signal before resolution.