**Persistent geopolitical tensions and repeated attacks on vessels have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels, positioning the 25-49 weekly bucket as the market-implied favorite at 74%.** Ongoing conflict since February 2026, including Iranian restrictions and strikes on ships, has cut daily traffic from pre-crisis norms of roughly 130 vessels to averages of 11–13 in early August, with single-day counts as low as 2–6 reported by Kpler around August 10–14. Recent incidents—such as attacks on ADNOC tankers and bulk carriers—have elevated war-risk insurance costs and prompted rerouting or “dark” transits, reinforcing trader expectations for subdued volumes in the week of August 10. Fading hopes for a swift U.S.-Iran deal or Oman-mediated corridor have further capped upside, leaving higher buckets (50+) at minimal implied probabilities. Market pricing aggregates real-capital bets on these supply-chain and security dynamics rather than forecasts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 10 августа?
Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 10 августа?
25-49 74%
<25 26%
50–74 1.1%
75-99 <1%
$57,872 Объем
$57,872 Объем
16 авг. 2026 г.
<25
26%
25-49
74%
50–74
1%
75-99
<1%
100+
<1%
25-49 74%
<25 26%
50–74 1.1%
75-99 <1%
$57,872 Объем
$57,872 Объем
16 авг. 2026 г.
<25
$20,007 Объем
26%
25-49
$22,128 Объем
74%
50–74
$11,194 Объем
1%
75-99
$3,347 Объем
<1%
100+
$1,197 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent geopolitical tensions and repeated attacks on vessels have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels, positioning the 25-49 weekly bucket as the market-implied favorite at 74%.**
Ongoing conflict since February 2026, including Iranian restrictions and strikes on ships, has cut daily traffic from pre-crisis norms of roughly 130 vessels to averages of 11–13 in early August, with single-day counts as low as 2–6 reported by Kpler around August 10–14. Recent incidents—such as attacks on ADNOC tankers and bulk carriers—have elevated war-risk insurance costs and prompted rerouting or “dark” transits, reinforcing trader expectations for subdued volumes in the week of August 10. Fading hopes for a swift U.S.-Iran deal or Oman-mediated corridor have further capped upside, leaving higher buckets (50+) at minimal implied probabilities. Market pricing aggregates real-capital bets on these supply-chain and security dynamics rather than forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Объем
$57,872Дата окончания
16 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent geopolitical tensions and repeated attacks on vessels have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels, positioning the 25-49 weekly bucket as the market-implied favorite at 74%.**
Ongoing conflict since February 2026, including Iranian restrictions and strikes on ships, has cut daily traffic from pre-crisis norms of roughly 130 vessels to averages of 11–13 in early August, with single-day counts as low as 2–6 reported by Kpler around August 10–14. Recent incidents—such as attacks on ADNOC tankers and bulk carriers—have elevated war-risk insurance costs and prompted rerouting or “dark” transits, reinforcing trader expectations for subdued volumes in the week of August 10. Fading hopes for a swift U.S.-Iran deal or Oman-mediated corridor have further capped upside, leaving higher buckets (50+) at minimal implied probabilities. Market pricing aggregates real-capital bets on these supply-chain and security dynamics rather than forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$57,872Дата окончания
16 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent geopolitical tensions and repeated attacks on vessels have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels, positioning the 25-49 weekly bucket as the market-implied favorite at 74%.** Ongoing conflict since February 2026, including Iranian restrictions and strikes on ships, has cut daily traffic from pre-crisis norms of roughly 130 vessels to averages of 11–13 in early August, with single-day counts as low as 2–6 reported by Kpler around August 10–14. Recent incidents—such as attacks on ADNOC tankers and bulk carriers—have elevated war-risk insurance costs and prompted rerouting or “dark” transits, reinforcing trader expectations for subdued volumes in the week of August 10. Fading hopes for a swift U.S.-Iran deal or Oman-mediated corridor have further capped upside, leaving higher buckets (50+) at minimal implied probabilities. Market pricing aggregates real-capital bets on these supply-chain and security dynamics rather than forecasts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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