Ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, including recent attacks on ADNOC tankers in mid-August and Iranian assertions of control over the Strait, have driven shipping traffic to near-standstill levels. Daily transits have fallen to single digits or low teens amid naval threats, vessel inspections, and rerouting incentives, pushing Brent crude above $88 amid supply concerns. These conditions align with the market's 59.5% implied probability on 25-49 weekly transits and 36.5% on fewer than 25, reflecting trader consensus on persistent risks from insurance spikes, dark AIS activity, and partial blockades rather than a swift return to pre-crisis volumes exceeding 60 vessels daily. Upcoming diplomatic talks or further incidents could shift these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю с 17 августа?
Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю с 17 августа?
25-49 61%
<25 36%
50-74 3.5%
75-99 <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 авг. 2026 г.
<25
36%
25-49
61%
50-74
4%
75-99
1%
100+
<1%
25-49 61%
<25 36%
50-74 3.5%
75-99 <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 авг. 2026 г.
<25
$2,232 Объем
36%
25-49
$1,494 Объем
61%
50-74
$625 Объем
4%
75-99
$876 Объем
1%
100+
$467 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, including recent attacks on ADNOC tankers in mid-August and Iranian assertions of control over the Strait, have driven shipping traffic to near-standstill levels. Daily transits have fallen to single digits or low teens amid naval threats, vessel inspections, and rerouting incentives, pushing Brent crude above $88 amid supply concerns. These conditions align with the market's 59.5% implied probability on 25-49 weekly transits and 36.5% on fewer than 25, reflecting trader consensus on persistent risks from insurance spikes, dark AIS activity, and partial blockades rather than a swift return to pre-crisis volumes exceeding 60 vessels daily. Upcoming diplomatic talks or further incidents could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Объем
$5,694Дата окончания
23 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, including recent attacks on ADNOC tankers in mid-August and Iranian assertions of control over the Strait, have driven shipping traffic to near-standstill levels. Daily transits have fallen to single digits or low teens amid naval threats, vessel inspections, and rerouting incentives, pushing Brent crude above $88 amid supply concerns. These conditions align with the market's 59.5% implied probability on 25-49 weekly transits and 36.5% on fewer than 25, reflecting trader consensus on persistent risks from insurance spikes, dark AIS activity, and partial blockades rather than a swift return to pre-crisis volumes exceeding 60 vessels daily. Upcoming diplomatic talks or further incidents could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$5,694Дата окончания
23 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, including recent attacks on ADNOC tankers in mid-August and Iranian assertions of control over the Strait, have driven shipping traffic to near-standstill levels. Daily transits have fallen to single digits or low teens amid naval threats, vessel inspections, and rerouting incentives, pushing Brent crude above $88 amid supply concerns. These conditions align with the market's 59.5% implied probability on 25-49 weekly transits and 36.5% on fewer than 25, reflecting trader consensus on persistent risks from insurance spikes, dark AIS activity, and partial blockades rather than a swift return to pre-crisis volumes exceeding 60 vessels daily. Upcoming diplomatic talks or further incidents could shift these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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