Early May outbreaks, including an EF3 in Oklahoma and multiple confirmed events across the Southeast and Midwest, have driven confirmed tornado counts toward or slightly above the 1991-2020 average of 265 for the month. Traders are weighing this momentum against ENSO influences, where lingering El Niño conditions often weaken Gulf moisture transport and reduce instability across the southern Plains while shifting activity northward. With two weeks remaining, National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center model runs highlight key variables such as jet-stream positioning, low-level wind shear, and CAPE values that could either sustain or suppress further development, keeping the 200–289 range tightly contested as new daily reports and updated forecasts emerge.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHow many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
<200 42%
260–289 40%
230–259 39%
200–229 37%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
8 июн. 2026 г.
<200
35%
200–229
37%
230–259
39%
260–289
40%
290–319
14%
320–349
6%
350–379
9%
380–410
8%
410+
9%
<200 42%
260–289 40%
230–259 39%
200–229 37%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
8 июн. 2026 г.
<200
$228 Объем
35%
200–229
$0 Объем
37%
230–259
$0 Объем
39%
260–289
$0 Объем
40%
290–319
$0 Объем
14%
320–349
$10 Объем
6%
350–379
$10 Объем
9%
380–410
$0 Объем
8%
410+
$0 Объем
9%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early May outbreaks, including an EF3 in Oklahoma and multiple confirmed events across the Southeast and Midwest, have driven confirmed tornado counts toward or slightly above the 1991-2020 average of 265 for the month. Traders are weighing this momentum against ENSO influences, where lingering El Niño conditions often weaken Gulf moisture transport and reduce instability across the southern Plains while shifting activity northward. With two weeks remaining, National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center model runs highlight key variables such as jet-stream positioning, low-level wind shear, and CAPE values that could either sustain or suppress further development, keeping the 200–289 range tightly contested as new daily reports and updated forecasts emerge.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
Объем
$248Дата окончания
8 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early May outbreaks, including an EF3 in Oklahoma and multiple confirmed events across the Southeast and Midwest, have driven confirmed tornado counts toward or slightly above the 1991-2020 average of 265 for the month. Traders are weighing this momentum against ENSO influences, where lingering El Niño conditions often weaken Gulf moisture transport and reduce instability across the southern Plains while shifting activity northward. With two weeks remaining, National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center model runs highlight key variables such as jet-stream positioning, low-level wind shear, and CAPE values that could either sustain or suppress further development, keeping the 200–289 range tightly contested as new daily reports and updated forecasts emerge.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Объем
$248Дата окончания
8 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early May outbreaks, including an EF3 in Oklahoma and multiple confirmed events across the Southeast and Midwest, have driven confirmed tornado counts toward or slightly above the 1991-2020 average of 265 for the month. Traders are weighing this momentum against ENSO influences, where lingering El Niño conditions often weaken Gulf moisture transport and reduce instability across the southern Plains while shifting activity northward. With two weeks remaining, National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center model runs highlight key variables such as jet-stream positioning, low-level wind shear, and CAPE values that could either sustain or suppress further development, keeping the 200–289 range tightly contested as new daily reports and updated forecasts emerge.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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