Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИран успешно нацелился на судоходство на...?
Иран успешно нацелился на судоходство на...?
$296,368 Объем
28 июн. 2026 г.
26 июня
1%
27 июня
99%
28 июня
32%
29 июня
19%
30 июня
17%
1 июля
19%
2 июля
22%
3 июля
11%
4 июля
20%
5 июля
15%
6 июля
18%
7 июля
13%
8 июля
9%
9 июля
8%
$296,368 Объем
26 июня
$44,220 Объем
1%
27 июня
$64,355 Объем
99%
28 июня
$25,009 Объем
32%
29 июня
$21,668 Объем
19%
30 июня
$22,659 Объем
17%
1 июля
$16,330 Объем
19%
2 июля
$15,678 Объем
22%
3 июля
$16,636 Объем
11%
4 июля
$16,046 Объем
20%
5 июля
$15,351 Объем
15%
6 июля
$17,776 Объем
18%
7 июля
$18,135 Объем
13%
8 июля
$2,058 Объем
9%
9 июля
$447 Объем
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Открытие рынка: Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ET
Объем
$296,368Дата окончания
9 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Объем
$296,368Дата окончания
9 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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