The recent federal indictment of former FBI Director James Comey on two threat-related counts tied to a 2025 Instagram post has not altered the near-certain market view that he will remain free through June 30. Legal experts widely expect motions to dismiss on First Amendment and selective-prosecution grounds to succeed before any trial, which remains scheduled for mid-July at the earliest. Comey surrendered voluntarily, was released without detention, and has retained counsel for upcoming arraignment proceedings. Historical precedent for similar cases shows pretrial incarceration is rare absent flight risk or ongoing danger, while sentencing—if a conviction ever occurs—would fall well beyond the June deadline. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to a “No” outcome based on the compressed timeline and institutional safeguards in the federal criminal process.