The near-certain 99.8% market-implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30 reflects the absence of any permanent legislative repeal, statutory amendment, or executive action that would eliminate the core U.S.-build, U.S.-flag, U.S.-own, and U.S.-crew mandates. Recent temporary waivers—initially issued March 17 for 60 days and extended 90 days through mid-August—addressed short-term energy supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict but preserved the 1920 law’s framework and drew immediate opposition from maritime unions and operators citing national security and domestic shipyard employment. No bills advancing full deregulation have progressed in Congress, consistent with the statute’s entrenched protectionist structure. While an unforeseen logistics crisis could theoretically prompt broader reform before resolution, the proximity to the June 30 deadline and sustained stakeholder resistance make such a shift improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$52,403 Объем
$52,403 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$52,403 Объем
$52,403 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The near-certain 99.8% market-implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30 reflects the absence of any permanent legislative repeal, statutory amendment, or executive action that would eliminate the core U.S.-build, U.S.-flag, U.S.-own, and U.S.-crew mandates. Recent temporary waivers—initially issued March 17 for 60 days and extended 90 days through mid-August—addressed short-term energy supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict but preserved the 1920 law’s framework and drew immediate opposition from maritime unions and operators citing national security and domestic shipyard employment. No bills advancing full deregulation have progressed in Congress, consistent with the statute’s entrenched protectionist structure. While an unforeseen logistics crisis could theoretically prompt broader reform before resolution, the proximity to the June 30 deadline and sustained stakeholder resistance make such a shift improbable.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Объем
$52,403Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The near-certain 99.8% market-implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30 reflects the absence of any permanent legislative repeal, statutory amendment, or executive action that would eliminate the core U.S.-build, U.S.-flag, U.S.-own, and U.S.-crew mandates. Recent temporary waivers—initially issued March 17 for 60 days and extended 90 days through mid-August—addressed short-term energy supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict but preserved the 1920 law’s framework and drew immediate opposition from maritime unions and operators citing national security and domestic shipyard employment. No bills advancing full deregulation have progressed in Congress, consistent with the statute’s entrenched protectionist structure. While an unforeseen logistics crisis could theoretically prompt broader reform before resolution, the proximity to the June 30 deadline and sustained stakeholder resistance make such a shift improbable.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$52,403Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain 99.8% market-implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30 reflects the absence of any permanent legislative repeal, statutory amendment, or executive action that would eliminate the core U.S.-build, U.S.-flag, U.S.-own, and U.S.-crew mandates. Recent temporary waivers—initially issued March 17 for 60 days and extended 90 days through mid-August—addressed short-term energy supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict but preserved the 1920 law’s framework and drew immediate opposition from maritime unions and operators citing national security and domestic shipyard employment. No bills advancing full deregulation have progressed in Congress, consistent with the statute’s entrenched protectionist structure. While an unforeseen logistics crisis could theoretically prompt broader reform before resolution, the proximity to the June 30 deadline and sustained stakeholder resistance make such a shift improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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