**Forecast uncertainty over Chicago's overnight low on September 12 drives the near-even market split between sub-58°F (40.0%) and 76°F-plus (39.5%) outcomes.** Official guidance from NWS and model consensus points to a mild night with lows in the mid-60s under partly cloudy skies and light southwest-to-northwest winds, favoring bins around 64–67°F. However, variable cloud cover can sharply alter radiative cooling rates, while shifts in steering flow or frontal timing introduce divergence among ensemble members. Historical September averages near 60°F provide context, yet short-term model spreads—especially on humidity and boundary-layer mixing—keep extreme tails competitive as traders weigh potential for stronger cooling or warmer advection. Updated model runs and evening observations will likely refine probabilities before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Чикаго 12 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Чикаго 12 сентября?
57°F или ниже 63%
76°F или выше 63%
60-61°F 39%
62-63°F 39%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
12 сент. 2026 г.
57°F или ниже
63%
58-59°F
13%
60-61°F
39%
62-63°F
39%
64-65°F
24%
66-67°F
29%
68-69°F
27%
70-71°F
39%
72-73°F
17%
74-75°F
9%
76°F или выше
63%
57°F или ниже 63%
76°F или выше 63%
60-61°F 39%
62-63°F 39%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
12 сент. 2026 г.
57°F или ниже
$0 Объем
63%
58-59°F
$0 Объем
13%
60-61°F
$0 Объем
39%
62-63°F
$0 Объем
39%
64-65°F
$0 Объем
24%
66-67°F
$18 Объем
29%
68-69°F
$0 Объем
27%
70-71°F
$0 Объем
39%
72-73°F
$0 Объем
17%
74-75°F
$0 Объем
9%
76°F или выше
$0 Объем
63%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty over Chicago's overnight low on September 12 drives the near-even market split between sub-58°F (40.0%) and 76°F-plus (39.5%) outcomes.** Official guidance from NWS and model consensus points to a mild night with lows in the mid-60s under partly cloudy skies and light southwest-to-northwest winds, favoring bins around 64–67°F. However, variable cloud cover can sharply alter radiative cooling rates, while shifts in steering flow or frontal timing introduce divergence among ensemble members. Historical September averages near 60°F provide context, yet short-term model spreads—especially on humidity and boundary-layer mixing—keep extreme tails competitive as traders weigh potential for stronger cooling or warmer advection. Updated model runs and evening observations will likely refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 10, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Объем
$18Дата окончания
12 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 3:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty over Chicago's overnight low on September 12 drives the near-even market split between sub-58°F (40.0%) and 76°F-plus (39.5%) outcomes.** Official guidance from NWS and model consensus points to a mild night with lows in the mid-60s under partly cloudy skies and light southwest-to-northwest winds, favoring bins around 64–67°F. However, variable cloud cover can sharply alter radiative cooling rates, while shifts in steering flow or frontal timing introduce divergence among ensemble members. Historical September averages near 60°F provide context, yet short-term model spreads—especially on humidity and boundary-layer mixing—keep extreme tails competitive as traders weigh potential for stronger cooling or warmer advection. Updated model runs and evening observations will likely refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$18Дата окончания
12 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 3:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast uncertainty over Chicago's overnight low on September 12 drives the near-even market split between sub-58°F (40.0%) and 76°F-plus (39.5%) outcomes.** Official guidance from NWS and model consensus points to a mild night with lows in the mid-60s under partly cloudy skies and light southwest-to-northwest winds, favoring bins around 64–67°F. However, variable cloud cover can sharply alter radiative cooling rates, while shifts in steering flow or frontal timing introduce divergence among ensemble members. Historical September averages near 60°F provide context, yet short-term model spreads—especially on humidity and boundary-layer mixing—keep extreme tails competitive as traders weigh potential for stronger cooling or warmer advection. Updated model runs and evening observations will likely refine probabilities before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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