Recent numerical weather models indicate clear skies and light northerly winds over Jinan on September 13–14, favoring strong nocturnal radiative cooling under low humidity that typically produces overnight lows in the 16–19°C range, consistent with regional September climatology. The market-implied odds, with 12°C or below at 50% and 13°C at 35%, reflect trader emphasis on possible stronger cold-air advection from northern high-pressure systems or divergence among ensemble forecasts that could enhance cooling. Official minimum temperature readings from the Jinan station will determine resolution, and any updates to model guidance on wind patterns or cloud cover before the period closes could alter these probabilities.